Selasa, 04 Desember 2012
Can the GTM support existing tagging structure for...
Can the GTM support existing tagging structure for events, or do they need to all be re-tagged to push them to the data layer? Clearly managing them in GTM has its advantages, but is it required?
Rabu, 28 November 2012
Hi Carl - We're working on this improvement ...
Hi Carl -
We're working on this improvement as we speak. I expect it'll be coming in the next couple months.
Cheers,
Laura
We're working on this improvement as we speak. I expect it'll be coming in the next couple months.
Cheers,
Laura
Laura, I understand GTM currently doesn't wo...
Laura,
I understand GTM currently doesn't work in Harmoiny with Content experiments, is this the case? If so what is the roadmap for fixing this?
I understand GTM currently doesn't work in Harmoiny with Content experiments, is this the case? If so what is the roadmap for fixing this?
Jumat, 09 November 2012
ZH is a better blog than yours. I used a mathemati...
ZH is a better blog than yours. I used a mathematical model to come to this conclusion. Sorry, it's science!
Exactly. We're there for a good laugh! Witties...
Exactly. We're there for a good laugh! Wittiest comments around! Oh and according to Alexa the age of the people frequenting ZH is closer to 65. Not young wannabe traders.
Senin, 27 Agustus 2012
ah, versus some aspiring hack professor pushing th...
ah, versus some aspiring hack professor pushing the fed and money printing off on us. that is why noah has no following. the efficient market hypothesis was thoroughly rebutted by many academic studies, that noah brings crap like this out is a disgrace. the present derivative and financial mess has deep roots to guys in financial engineering like noah. he is defending his corrupt future profession of floating fraudulent CDS on the masses and acting like he is smart but he took a few math courses as an undergraduate. i don't dispute his contention that for trading zh is worthless as jim cramer. but most people know to take the opposite side of the trade from what goldman sachs men say. zh looks like a jpm sponsored hedge fund group with heavy ties to london and tel aviv.
Senin, 06 Agustus 2012
Crikey, some angry people here. I remembered that ...
Crikey, some angry people here. I remembered that I wrote about an example of what is wrong with ZH a while ago:
http://johnbutters.org/2011/01/11/zero-hedge/
http://johnbutters.org/2011/01/11/zero-hedge/
Minggu, 05 Agustus 2012
Jumat, 27 Juli 2012
July 27, 2012 Grocery Savers Challenge... & More
ALLLLLLL RIGGGGHHHHHHTLet's get this party started...First some NEWS...Very soon now, this blog is going to feature a big "MESSAGE" at the very top of the page with a LINK.... to the BRAND SPANKIN' NEW site...You'll be able to continue to read back through all the old posts on this site (for as long as Google keeps the site up, anyway,) but we're moving to
Rabu, 25 Juli 2012
Zero Hedge lies. Come find truth: mobile.twitter.c...
Zero Hedge lies. Come find truth: mobile.twitter.com/#!/nonzeroalpha
Looking for co-conspirators, especially a web master. You will be compensated in righteous justice and vodka. Tweet me if interested.
Looking for co-conspirators, especially a web master. You will be compensated in righteous justice and vodka. Tweet me if interested.
Ask and the interweb shall provide comrades: mobil...
Ask and the interweb shall provide comrades: mobile.twitter.com/#!/nonzeroalpha
Looking for co-conspirators, especially a web master, send me a tweet if interested. You will be compensated in righteous justice and vodka.
Looking for co-conspirators, especially a web master, send me a tweet if interested. You will be compensated in righteous justice and vodka.
Senin, 23 Juli 2012
<-- and that's what ZH is for. In a sense,...
<-- and that's what ZH is for. In a sense, providing data to back a lawsuit or arbitration case IS a form of actionable trading information, y'know....
This is why short-selling is too dangerous to do. ...
This is why short-selling is too dangerous to do. If you're investing long, with money you don't need to live off of, you *can afford to* wait it out. You read the novel analysis or information, make your trade, and then wait. So your investments drop for a few years; eventually they reflect the underlying value.
That is the basis of long-term value investing. And it works.
That is the basis of long-term value investing. And it works.
Weak-form EMH is obviously wrong. The key missing...
Weak-form EMH is obviously wrong.
The key missing insight is that publicly *available* information is not actually *read* by the majority of people involved in the market.
If you weaken it even MORE, to refer only to "widely known" information, then you get something closer to true.
But you still have to weaken it even MORE, to state that the arbitrage opportunities for riskless gain "do not persist" rather than that they "do not exist". Because we all know that arbitrage opportunities for nearly-riskless gain frequently happen, although they aren't large. (Play around trading Shell A stock and Shell B stock, both with liquid markets, for a while if you don't believe me.)
And once you've done that, you've reduced the hypothesis to the following statement:
Given widely known information which leads to an opportunity to make arbitrage profits, people will relatively quickly within a year or two) take the opportunity to take those arbitrage profits, thus eliminating them.
This is a trivial statement with no interesting economic implications.
A
The key missing insight is that publicly *available* information is not actually *read* by the majority of people involved in the market.
If you weaken it even MORE, to refer only to "widely known" information, then you get something closer to true.
But you still have to weaken it even MORE, to state that the arbitrage opportunities for riskless gain "do not persist" rather than that they "do not exist". Because we all know that arbitrage opportunities for nearly-riskless gain frequently happen, although they aren't large. (Play around trading Shell A stock and Shell B stock, both with liquid markets, for a while if you don't believe me.)
And once you've done that, you've reduced the hypothesis to the following statement:
Given widely known information which leads to an opportunity to make arbitrage profits, people will relatively quickly within a year or two) take the opportunity to take those arbitrage profits, thus eliminating them.
This is a trivial statement with no interesting economic implications.
A
Oh, they have 3 month vacations in the private sec...
Oh, they have 3 month vacations in the private sector in France. And they still pay very well.
The smart selfish people are arranging to move to Europe. Still.
The smart selfish people are arranging to move to Europe. Still.
"That means that if the market is anywhere cl...
"That means that if the market is anywhere close to being efficient, "
It's not. Everyone's who's actually in the market knows this. Most of the participants don't even read the annual reports of the companies they "invest" in, for God's sake.
"But OK fine, suppose the market is not efficient. Suppose there are some smart people who can interpret the public news really well, and some suckers who take home the wrong message."
Yes. This is true. Benjamin Graham wrote an entire book on how to read financial statements (public information) in order to get the right message rather than the "sucker's message" which the corporate boards were trying to peddle.
"Because there's another problem here. If the writers of Zero Hedge really knew some information that could allow them to beat the market, why in God's name would they tell it to you? If they had half a brain, they'd just keep the info to themselves, trade on it, and make a profit! "
Often true. But it depends.
* Sometimes (as in the case of Naked Capitalism) the writer has an agenda other than making money. These can be very useful. The old Wall Street Journal news pages, before it got trashed by Murdoch, were an example: the reporters' goals were to break news and become famous, so you could trust their reporting of the Enron crimes, etc.
* Sometimes (as in the case of annual reports) the writer is being forced to publish by outside forces, but really would prefer not to publish at all. These can be quite useful but require *decoding* because they're deliberately misleading.
"after they had made their profit, they'd release the news to the public (and collect ad revenue), but by then the news would be worthless."
This is a very cogent argument; after the Enron news broke, Enron dropped massively. However, it didn't go to zero until some time later, so you still got some value out of reading the news when it first broke rather than the week after. So there is also the fact that a startling number of people take a very long time to accede to reality; it is possible to identify a situation when *many* people have identified it but many are still contrarian.
None of this negates your general point -- which is, basically, that someone selling a "hot stock tip" is *never* useful to listen to. But I have catalogued for you the specific situations in which reading financial news can actually help you trade better. (Remember, never take their *advice*, read their information and then analyze it yourself.)
I trade less than five times a year. The most useful information I've ever gotten from online sources was the hint in 2007 that maybe the financial institutions didn't know what the hell they were doing, which caused me to drill down into the annual reports of all the financial institutions I owned stock in, decide that several didn't know what they were doing, and sell them all.
But then I realize I'm looking for different things than the average male investor. I'm scanning the news for evidence of disaster in investments I already own, which is quite the opposite of optimism bias.
A lot of the writers at Zero Hedge are absolute bullshit artists, but a few of them are digging up genuinely useful data which is worth reading. I suspect they use it *because* of the anonymity; they are probably insiders who are trying to reveal corruption without getting fired. If they weren't in that position they'd just publish under their names at Naked Capitalism or The Big Picture or whatever. The insider leaks there are by far the most useful thing at the site, and if you're watching for signs of collapse of certain companies, they're actually worth paying attention to (though you need to do your own due diligence to see whether they're plausible or just libelous).
It's not. Everyone's who's actually in the market knows this. Most of the participants don't even read the annual reports of the companies they "invest" in, for God's sake.
"But OK fine, suppose the market is not efficient. Suppose there are some smart people who can interpret the public news really well, and some suckers who take home the wrong message."
Yes. This is true. Benjamin Graham wrote an entire book on how to read financial statements (public information) in order to get the right message rather than the "sucker's message" which the corporate boards were trying to peddle.
"Because there's another problem here. If the writers of Zero Hedge really knew some information that could allow them to beat the market, why in God's name would they tell it to you? If they had half a brain, they'd just keep the info to themselves, trade on it, and make a profit! "
Often true. But it depends.
* Sometimes (as in the case of Naked Capitalism) the writer has an agenda other than making money. These can be very useful. The old Wall Street Journal news pages, before it got trashed by Murdoch, were an example: the reporters' goals were to break news and become famous, so you could trust their reporting of the Enron crimes, etc.
* Sometimes (as in the case of annual reports) the writer is being forced to publish by outside forces, but really would prefer not to publish at all. These can be quite useful but require *decoding* because they're deliberately misleading.
"after they had made their profit, they'd release the news to the public (and collect ad revenue), but by then the news would be worthless."
This is a very cogent argument; after the Enron news broke, Enron dropped massively. However, it didn't go to zero until some time later, so you still got some value out of reading the news when it first broke rather than the week after. So there is also the fact that a startling number of people take a very long time to accede to reality; it is possible to identify a situation when *many* people have identified it but many are still contrarian.
None of this negates your general point -- which is, basically, that someone selling a "hot stock tip" is *never* useful to listen to. But I have catalogued for you the specific situations in which reading financial news can actually help you trade better. (Remember, never take their *advice*, read their information and then analyze it yourself.)
I trade less than five times a year. The most useful information I've ever gotten from online sources was the hint in 2007 that maybe the financial institutions didn't know what the hell they were doing, which caused me to drill down into the annual reports of all the financial institutions I owned stock in, decide that several didn't know what they were doing, and sell them all.
But then I realize I'm looking for different things than the average male investor. I'm scanning the news for evidence of disaster in investments I already own, which is quite the opposite of optimism bias.
A lot of the writers at Zero Hedge are absolute bullshit artists, but a few of them are digging up genuinely useful data which is worth reading. I suspect they use it *because* of the anonymity; they are probably insiders who are trying to reveal corruption without getting fired. If they weren't in that position they'd just publish under their names at Naked Capitalism or The Big Picture or whatever. The insider leaks there are by far the most useful thing at the site, and if you're watching for signs of collapse of certain companies, they're actually worth paying attention to (though you need to do your own due diligence to see whether they're plausible or just libelous).
Minggu, 22 Juli 2012
Just got around to reading this. Good post Noah. T...
Just got around to reading this. Good post Noah. Those certain that Noah is some academic fool, stuck in his ivory tower, take the time to learn the no arbitrage argument for the EMH. It is at once so simple, and yet so deep. Once you've done this, and you still think that even the weak form of the EMH is bullshit, then pray your luck doesn't run out before you gain some wisdom. We need academics like Noah to look at the system from the outside precisely because he does not drink the kook aid.
Kamis, 19 Juli 2012
<i>And also because it's become a haven for go...
And also because it's become a haven for goldbug/"Austrian"/"hyperinflation-is-coming"/"the Fed is a UN conspiracy to destroy the white race" kind of BS.
Well, with that profound and penetrating insight...
Well, with that profound and penetrating insight...
Senin, 16 Juli 2012
Good post. Zero Hedge is classic "don't-w...
Good post. Zero Hedge is classic "don't-we-know-better-than-all-those-brainiacs" nonsense.
It is amazing how bad people are at choosing their teachers. It's a vital skill.
It is amazing how bad people are at choosing their teachers. It's a vital skill.
fantastic post and Thanks for sharing this info. ...
fantastic post and Thanks for sharing this info. It's very helpful.
B&B in Jaipur
B&B in Jaipur
Minggu, 15 Juli 2012
Best of The Best, July 15, 2012
In an ongoing effort to keep bringing 'The Best of the Best of West Florida,' to our community, Omnique is celebrating "Family Matters' for this mid-summer issue! First, with just about a month of 'summer' left before the kids go back to school, beat the heat with some indoor, air conditioned exercise for free! Visit www.kidsbowlfree.com and get 2 free games each day, for each of your kids!
I don't see how your article would be any diff...
I don't see how your article would be any different if you substituted any other site for ZH.
To me, it seems clear you simply have a personal problem with ZH. This is supported by the pompous Update #1 in which you put forth the "best quote" of one of your buddies in finance as "retail investor is retail" .... WTF kind of attitude is that? Your Wall Street friends fucked the entire planet on sub-prime, LIBOR, etc. and you look down at retail?
I like ZH. I'm not a super fan ... but after reading you just once I'd take ZH any day of the week.
George ... The Greek ... From Canada
To me, it seems clear you simply have a personal problem with ZH. This is supported by the pompous Update #1 in which you put forth the "best quote" of one of your buddies in finance as "retail investor is retail" .... WTF kind of attitude is that? Your Wall Street friends fucked the entire planet on sub-prime, LIBOR, etc. and you look down at retail?
I like ZH. I'm not a super fan ... but after reading you just once I'd take ZH any day of the week.
George ... The Greek ... From Canada
Jumat, 13 Juli 2012
Ah Zero Hedge. Nothing but conspiracy theories ab...
Ah Zero Hedge.
Nothing but conspiracy theories about how the banking industry is rotten and the politicians are dupes to the anational banking cabal.
That's nothing but crazy talk because otherwise we would have seen some kind of evidence of it by now.
Nothing but conspiracy theories about how the banking industry is rotten and the politicians are dupes to the anational banking cabal.
That's nothing but crazy talk because otherwise we would have seen some kind of evidence of it by now.
Oh, so Zero Hedge people don't like Brad DeLon...
Oh, so Zero Hedge people don't like Brad DeLong, huh?
(lol)
(lol)
Kamis, 12 Juli 2012
WTF? How long you been the Hedge? My guess is not ...
WTF? How long you been the Hedge? My guess is not very long...
Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs
Zerohedge has reported on events WAY before the MS...
Zerohedge has reported on events WAY before the MSM gets ahold of it. You should read more Zerohedge before denigrating what is generally an excellent source of analysis. You should go after CNBC and other such outlets that led the retail lambs perpetually to slaughter.
Noah, I don't suppose you'd be able to cha...
Noah, I don't suppose you'd be able to change your blogspot setting so that comments list the day as well as the time?
Rabu, 11 Juli 2012
It also raises the question of why people who thin...
It also raises the question of why people who think themselves to be REAL MEN are much more likely to believe in the specter of hyperinflation than the specter of debt-deflation we really are haunted by. They're always ready to believe that one thing or another are a bubble (gold excepted), but the analysis of this huge asset bubble popping always ends in...hyperinflation.
It's an obvious analytical flaw, but there it is.
It's an obvious analytical flaw, but there it is.
This a hilarious article, and very smart, and in m...
This a hilarious article, and very smart, and in many ways very true. But there is one deep flaw in its reasoning. There is a big difference between a novel analysis and a market-moving fact. The latter never get to the plebes before they've changed the market. But the former often do. And the problem with the article is that it (and the theories it wields) are talking about facts, not theories.
The US housing bubble is a great example. If you read Krugman, you read, in 2006, some copper-bottomed reasoning, coming from a guy with great credentials and track record, that it was hugely over-valued. But if you shorted it then, you got crushed. Another great example is the tech stock market. Everyone knew that by the end. But if you bet against it early, you lost tons. A third recent example is the London Whale. The guy who profited big from that lost money for 6 months.
These are not exceptions but the rule. Most deep analyses that something is wrong don't get proved right immediately. Often they don't get proved right for years. Hence the old saw that the key to investing is not knowing whether something is going down, but when.
The result is that you can be the smartest guy in the world and lose everything because you were smart too soon. When it comes to theories, the first-mover advantage this article is built on vanishes.
Instead you have, I think, a very plausible picture wherein being first, and being the smartest, are not enough by themselves. And where the key is exactly a "je ne sais quoi" -- a "I can't say what it is" -- of the sort the author mocks because it's illogical. He's right, it is. C'est la vie.
The problem with rational market theory is that the market isn't rational. It is, in fact, kind of hilarious to hold up efficient market theory as an intellectual touchstone in the post-2008 world. Most of the worst crap sold was built on it. It's in the sewer these days. The hot theories these day are exactly the opposite, trying to explain how the the market can be so illogical
This finally bring us to balls of steel, which the author mocks mercilessly and hilariously. But you do indeed need them to bet big on an analysis that nobody else believes. Because even if you're dead right it's going to take a while, and you're going to lose big for a long time and look like a fool. And of course all the time you know you could be wrong.
Big balls muddy men's minds, no doubt about it. But in all big contrarian bets they were always obviously needed. Because of this endemic time lag.
The US housing bubble is a great example. If you read Krugman, you read, in 2006, some copper-bottomed reasoning, coming from a guy with great credentials and track record, that it was hugely over-valued. But if you shorted it then, you got crushed. Another great example is the tech stock market. Everyone knew that by the end. But if you bet against it early, you lost tons. A third recent example is the London Whale. The guy who profited big from that lost money for 6 months.
These are not exceptions but the rule. Most deep analyses that something is wrong don't get proved right immediately. Often they don't get proved right for years. Hence the old saw that the key to investing is not knowing whether something is going down, but when.
The result is that you can be the smartest guy in the world and lose everything because you were smart too soon. When it comes to theories, the first-mover advantage this article is built on vanishes.
Instead you have, I think, a very plausible picture wherein being first, and being the smartest, are not enough by themselves. And where the key is exactly a "je ne sais quoi" -- a "I can't say what it is" -- of the sort the author mocks because it's illogical. He's right, it is. C'est la vie.
The problem with rational market theory is that the market isn't rational. It is, in fact, kind of hilarious to hold up efficient market theory as an intellectual touchstone in the post-2008 world. Most of the worst crap sold was built on it. It's in the sewer these days. The hot theories these day are exactly the opposite, trying to explain how the the market can be so illogical
This finally bring us to balls of steel, which the author mocks mercilessly and hilariously. But you do indeed need them to bet big on an analysis that nobody else believes. Because even if you're dead right it's going to take a while, and you're going to lose big for a long time and look like a fool. And of course all the time you know you could be wrong.
Big balls muddy men's minds, no doubt about it. But in all big contrarian bets they were always obviously needed. Because of this endemic time lag.
Selasa, 10 Juli 2012
The comments on Yahoo finance articles that have a...
The comments on Yahoo finance articles that have anything to do with government/politics make ZH commenters look brilliant in comparison.
"LOL. Hedge for inflation? What inflation?&qu...
"LOL. Hedge for inflation? What inflation?" - Lulz4l1fs
That's exactly why I think there is a gold/silver bubble waiting to burst. It has been caused by all these idiot gold buggers simultaneously expecting imminent hyper-inflation that will never materialize (has ZH ever posted any info on the liquidity trap?). When they finally realize this, they will all simultaneously sell (because they are all listening to the same idiotic sources) and the bubble will burst.
I see two interesting questions:
1.) How many gold buggers are out there and how much of it was bought with leverage?
2.) How ironic is it going to be when all the Ron Paul worshipers are begging for bailouts?
That's exactly why I think there is a gold/silver bubble waiting to burst. It has been caused by all these idiot gold buggers simultaneously expecting imminent hyper-inflation that will never materialize (has ZH ever posted any info on the liquidity trap?). When they finally realize this, they will all simultaneously sell (because they are all listening to the same idiotic sources) and the bubble will burst.
I see two interesting questions:
1.) How many gold buggers are out there and how much of it was bought with leverage?
2.) How ironic is it going to be when all the Ron Paul worshipers are begging for bailouts?
"I don't see any basement-dwelling accumu...
"I don't see any basement-dwelling accumulators of physical silver (or any of the other archetypal ZH trades) destroying your pension fund." - Aziz
You will when the gold/silver bubble bursts. Circa 2006, I hadn't seen any CBO's destroying anyones pensions either.
You will when the gold/silver bubble bursts. Circa 2006, I hadn't seen any CBO's destroying anyones pensions either.
If your placing bids and offers at market because ...
If your placing bids and offers at market because of a headline you read somewhere does not mean that particular news outlet is a money sink hole. All that means is you have no method of quantifiying how much you pay for something. You are a sucker because you take risk at bad prices, not because you follow what a news article or op-ed suggested to do. Anyone who believes noahs article is just a much of a sucker as the guys losing money trading headlines.
Michael. I like the opposite question - "If ...
Michael. I like the opposite question - "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" Think of the number of people to whom it should be addressed.
I like "not even wrong" too - I think it...
I like "not even wrong" too - I think it crops up in Samuelson somewhere, so this commenter may actually have read/studied economics.
Fox news has been doing this for at least a decade...
Fox news has been doing this for at least a decade with much success. Why do you think Hannity throws a football at the end of every show. An interesting study would be to see how much more effective at testosterone pumping it would be if he didnt throw like girl.
How long did housing prices rise before they crash...
How long did housing prices rise before they crashed? Poorer than they were last year no. Poorer after the minski moment, yes.
Noah was saying if you believe what you are readin...
Noah was saying if you believe what you are reading on ZH and trade on that advice (due diligence or otherwise) you will lose money in the long run... and he is correct.
"... if you see ice cream and want some, you money vanishes" That's classic. Me want yummy ice cream served on a gold platter with Ron Pauls image engraved on it. Me want it now.
"... if you see ice cream and want some, you money vanishes" That's classic. Me want yummy ice cream served on a gold platter with Ron Pauls image engraved on it. Me want it now.
diversity of opinions on matters never hurt anyone...
diversity of opinions on matters never hurt anyone...with an open mind.
I'll keep an open mind on what I read. When I see someone singling out 'one' economic source as bad, given the plethora of crappy advisers out there, I question the motvies of the individual raising the charge.
ex.
jim kramer was touting bear stearns, right before it's crash, and he still has a job...shilling for obama.
I still watch his show when I can.
I'll keep an open mind on what I read. When I see someone singling out 'one' economic source as bad, given the plethora of crappy advisers out there, I question the motvies of the individual raising the charge.
ex.
jim kramer was touting bear stearns, right before it's crash, and he still has a job...shilling for obama.
I still watch his show when I can.
Noah Smith: Sorry to go off-topic, but this is Blu...
Noah Smith: Sorry to go off-topic, but this is Blue Aurora, who e-mailed your gmail account the other day. Did you get my e-mail?
Senin, 09 Juli 2012
I read Motley Fool and got the impression, "b...
I read Motley Fool and got the impression, "buy index funds, hold them, never come back here. If, however, you are too stupid to follow our advice, here's a bunch of stuff for you because clearly you are a sucker who will pay us, since you are purposefully doing the thing we know is stupid." I don't know what they've been doing since, but their site was where I got my so-far-successful buy-and-hold strategy.
This thread will never die because you have offend...
This thread will never die because you have offended the true Americans who know it's time to hit 'reset', balance the budget, and buy gold because it has been used for money for over 8000 years and end the Socialist oppression and the thievery of the IRS tyranny established by the useful idiot dumocrats!
Also, "End the Fed!".
Long Live Ron Paul!.
Also, "End the Fed!".
Long Live Ron Paul!.
To say that zerohedge is completely wrong is to sa...
To say that zerohedge is completely wrong is to say that the typical parrots in the media are right.
Noah, I think you wanted "A girl can dream!...
Noah,
I think you wanted "A girl can dream!" here. Possibly you're playing multi-dimensional comment-reply chess and deliberately chose "a man can dream" over the 3:1 more common "girl can dream" construction, but I think the Obvious is your friend in this thread.
Cheers,
Anon
I think you wanted "A girl can dream!" here. Possibly you're playing multi-dimensional comment-reply chess and deliberately chose "a man can dream" over the 3:1 more common "girl can dream" construction, but I think the Obvious is your friend in this thread.
Cheers,
Anon
Speaking of suckers, shouldn't you at least be...
Speaking of suckers, shouldn't you at least be getting some ad revenue out of this traffic that comes with this sort of troll bating?
This J@ggoff does not understand the meaning of ho...
This J@ggoff does not understand the meaning of hoax.
How can anyone take anything he says seriously, ever again, if he can`t give a common sense definition of what a hoax is.
I read Business Insider and ZH. BI is for Manhattan centered liberals. ZH is for clear eyed realists. How does that encourage over trading?
How can anyone take anything he says seriously, ever again, if he can`t give a common sense definition of what a hoax is.
I read Business Insider and ZH. BI is for Manhattan centered liberals. ZH is for clear eyed realists. How does that encourage over trading?
You seem to confuse testosterone with adrenaline. ...
You seem to confuse testosterone with adrenaline. The gambler's mentality is far more tied up in the stressful risk-taking rush of epinephrine. Never read Fear and Loathing? In any case it seems off to negatively characterize a hormone that not only builds muscle but also brain power. Maybe this is the place for estrogen soaked analysis? ;)
I agree with this post, that is why I don't re...
I agree with this post, that is why I don't read Zero Hedge. Instead, try these:
http://marginalevolution.com/
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
http://marginalevolution.com/
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
Noah, Looks like your strategy has worked. 243 co...
Noah,
Looks like your strategy has worked. 243 comments and still going. Possibly the post that will have the highest traffic ;)
Congrats. A few more questions I would like to see addressed (in addition to some good questions by Chris):
What is the real purpose of QE?
Do you think the US trade deficit is sustainable in the long run? What should be the US strategy to solve that predicament?
Thanks.
Looks like your strategy has worked. 243 comments and still going. Possibly the post that will have the highest traffic ;)
Congrats. A few more questions I would like to see addressed (in addition to some good questions by Chris):
What is the real purpose of QE?
Do you think the US trade deficit is sustainable in the long run? What should be the US strategy to solve that predicament?
Thanks.
Noah, Zerohedge are a bunch of simpletons, but y...
Noah,
Zerohedge are a bunch of simpletons, but your basic case here is predicated on assumptions that don't describe the real world (insert economist joke here). Institutions and individuals are resource constrained. They could quite easily maximize their commitment to whatever signal they are using, and for that signal not to be tapped out.
PIMCO, who have compiled a long record of mostly successful macro-calls (last year's short of treasuries notwithstanding) is a pretty clear example of how this could work. Those guys take positions, typically very significant relative positions, let alone absolute positions, given their AUMs, and then talk their book all day.
And even with their size and ability to leverage, investing with PIMCO on that basis would still have produced alpha relative to benchmarks like the Barclay's Aggregate, and that's before one considers the possibility that the reader was not adding value by information filtering and/or aggregating other value-added signals, e.g. GMO's. As to GMO, it's 10 year return forecasts have proven to be remarkably accurate.
Of course you could argue that this counts as post hoc selection of news sources and is proof of nothing, but PIMCO and GMO have been right for a long time (both famously got the dot com bubble correct), so the fly in the ointment remains. Furthermore, the argument in question is phrased as being applicable to every Tom Dick & Harry putting financial information into the public domain.
Of course, notwithstanding the trouble this makes for your larger argument, it doesn't distract from the likelihood of high frequency trading driving poor investment outcomes, but that insight applies to institutional investors who don't read toilet roll like Zerohedge as much as retail investors that do. So it's a little besides the point.
PS My investment thesis was formed on an around the world trip, wherein I was struck by third world countries use of ratty dollars and the seigniorage implied. Triffin's paradox acts a bit like erosion. Slow and misleadingly receptive to intervention, but ultimately and utterly inexorable.
I was long gold and commodities during the Bush years when our savings rate plummeted and no one seemed to care. More recently I have been long treasuries. As to doom mongers like zerohedge and Kyle Bass, I'd suggest one of Camus's insights. There's no money in plague.
Zerohedge are a bunch of simpletons, but your basic case here is predicated on assumptions that don't describe the real world (insert economist joke here). Institutions and individuals are resource constrained. They could quite easily maximize their commitment to whatever signal they are using, and for that signal not to be tapped out.
PIMCO, who have compiled a long record of mostly successful macro-calls (last year's short of treasuries notwithstanding) is a pretty clear example of how this could work. Those guys take positions, typically very significant relative positions, let alone absolute positions, given their AUMs, and then talk their book all day.
And even with their size and ability to leverage, investing with PIMCO on that basis would still have produced alpha relative to benchmarks like the Barclay's Aggregate, and that's before one considers the possibility that the reader was not adding value by information filtering and/or aggregating other value-added signals, e.g. GMO's. As to GMO, it's 10 year return forecasts have proven to be remarkably accurate.
Of course you could argue that this counts as post hoc selection of news sources and is proof of nothing, but PIMCO and GMO have been right for a long time (both famously got the dot com bubble correct), so the fly in the ointment remains. Furthermore, the argument in question is phrased as being applicable to every Tom Dick & Harry putting financial information into the public domain.
Of course, notwithstanding the trouble this makes for your larger argument, it doesn't distract from the likelihood of high frequency trading driving poor investment outcomes, but that insight applies to institutional investors who don't read toilet roll like Zerohedge as much as retail investors that do. So it's a little besides the point.
PS My investment thesis was formed on an around the world trip, wherein I was struck by third world countries use of ratty dollars and the seigniorage implied. Triffin's paradox acts a bit like erosion. Slow and misleadingly receptive to intervention, but ultimately and utterly inexorable.
I was long gold and commodities during the Bush years when our savings rate plummeted and no one seemed to care. More recently I have been long treasuries. As to doom mongers like zerohedge and Kyle Bass, I'd suggest one of Camus's insights. There's no money in plague.
Thank you Noah Smith for giving us a great laugh, ...
Thank you Noah Smith for giving us a great laugh, took us 15 minutes to read thru your BS.
You seem to think readers of ZH are idiots and blindly follow, follow his twitter account for a week and get back to us
You seem to think readers of ZH are idiots and blindly follow, follow his twitter account for a week and get back to us
So you wrote an unjustified hit piece on Zero Hedg...
So you wrote an unjustified hit piece on Zero Hedge, which as far as I can tell has been early on every financial scandal, because you wanted a foil to strike out at Cramer and Motley Fool?
If you actually read ZeroHedge, you would know that they give pretty much equal time to inflationary and deflationary scenarios. They don't give trading advice, other than tracking the anti-Goldman muppet portfolio.
There is no justification at all for lumping ZeroHedge in with Cramer and Motley Fool. Consider completing the retraction you started above and aim at the right targets.
If you actually read ZeroHedge, you would know that they give pretty much equal time to inflationary and deflationary scenarios. They don't give trading advice, other than tracking the anti-Goldman muppet portfolio.
There is no justification at all for lumping ZeroHedge in with Cramer and Motley Fool. Consider completing the retraction you started above and aim at the right targets.
He's too Emotional to be Trading and incapable...
He's too Emotional to be Trading and incapable of forming an objectionable opinion on anything 'financial'.
Restore yourself some sense of dignity Noah....build an ark in a pottery class that serves wine!
Restore yourself some sense of dignity Noah....build an ark in a pottery class that serves wine!
Noah, without reading through every post, I have t...
Noah, without reading through every post, I have to assume that someone has suggested that you take more than a glancing look at ZH.
I have been following ZH for almost four years. I came to ZH after 2008, confused and angered becuase I was ready to retire at 49(after personally building a net worth in the high mid six figure range). I was told by my invetment handlers (some of wall Streets best) that I was protected form such events.
When the meltdown happened, I was told that, "it was all unforseen." That, "it was the one 1% event."
I didnt buy the stories coming from my money managers, or MSM for that matter and the lack of clarity infuriated me even more.
ZH provided me with the truth about the events leading up to 2008 and beyond. The truth that ZH provided me gave me comfort,and the belief that what happened to me(and countless others) should not go unpunished.
In 2009 I filed for arbitration and eventually settled with my money managers. Although not completely made whole, I would not have persued for losses, had I been kept in the dark. ZH brought light.
If you want to understand ZH, spend some time on ZH, my man. Otherwise, a piece like this minimizes you in the eyes of many. Cheers.
(I added my age and net worth as a point of reference. Also, I have never looked at ZH as a source for actionable trading info, nor have I ever felt like they were giving any.)
I have been following ZH for almost four years. I came to ZH after 2008, confused and angered becuase I was ready to retire at 49(after personally building a net worth in the high mid six figure range). I was told by my invetment handlers (some of wall Streets best) that I was protected form such events.
When the meltdown happened, I was told that, "it was all unforseen." That, "it was the one 1% event."
I didnt buy the stories coming from my money managers, or MSM for that matter and the lack of clarity infuriated me even more.
ZH provided me with the truth about the events leading up to 2008 and beyond. The truth that ZH provided me gave me comfort,and the belief that what happened to me(and countless others) should not go unpunished.
In 2009 I filed for arbitration and eventually settled with my money managers. Although not completely made whole, I would not have persued for losses, had I been kept in the dark. ZH brought light.
If you want to understand ZH, spend some time on ZH, my man. Otherwise, a piece like this minimizes you in the eyes of many. Cheers.
(I added my age and net worth as a point of reference. Also, I have never looked at ZH as a source for actionable trading info, nor have I ever felt like they were giving any.)
you,sir, are an idiot,or worse.hyper troll?maybe y...
you,sir, are an idiot,or worse.hyper troll?maybe you should read ZH once...idiot
Make bankers be bankers again, prevent them from b...
Make bankers be bankers again, prevent them from being traders and gamblers, make them responsibly loan money to builders and value creators again, and make them keep the paper so they do loan responsibly. Its near criminal to let Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley run as chartered banks. The investment bankers and hedge funds need to be cut loose, gamble with their own money and if they fail they go down in flames, and they need to be ring fenced to prevent them from taking down the rest of the world.
Allow bankers a good living but discourage the ridiculous money they are making. One reason value creators are disappearing is the talented and smart are all going to Wall Street and The City because they know they can get rich quick and retire at thirty without every doing anything hard or of value. They just have to grind out 10 years of high stress life in a snake pit. Its a misallocation of resources to pour all the best people in to financial services.
Restore Glass Steagal in its few pages of glory instead of that financial reform monstrosity. Break up the top 20 big banks in the world so they stop manipulating the world, and so they aren't Too Big To Fail. Penalize High Frequency Traders and day traders and promote investing in stocks instead of gambling. Get rid of dark pools and put equities and derivatives trade on highly transparent markets again. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.
The main problem is the genie is already out of the bottle. Even if you could fix Wall Street, most of the shenanigans have already moved to The City. If you fix The City they will probably just move to Dubai, or Hong Kong or some island in the Caribbean.
I'm totally sick of listening to CNBC at this point because 20 times a day they talk about QE. Begging and pleading for QE, parsing central banker statements looking for QE, euphoria when there is QE, euphoria with an every diminishing half life, disappointment when there isn't QE. Zerohedge is a "goldbug" only because the Fed already massively printed to get out of 2008 which is why gold is $1600 instead of $600, and chances are all the central banks are going to keep printing to get out of the debt hole they are in. The central banks need to stop printing, restore interest rates to sane levels and let the chips fall where they may. It will be a disaster for a year or two but the system will get purged and then maybe it will recover and be a little less insane. Printining money and financial repression is rewarding irresponsible debtors and screwing everyone else. If you want to end misallocation of resources then currencies and interest rates need to return to sanity instead of functioning as economic heroin.
Allow bankers a good living but discourage the ridiculous money they are making. One reason value creators are disappearing is the talented and smart are all going to Wall Street and The City because they know they can get rich quick and retire at thirty without every doing anything hard or of value. They just have to grind out 10 years of high stress life in a snake pit. Its a misallocation of resources to pour all the best people in to financial services.
Restore Glass Steagal in its few pages of glory instead of that financial reform monstrosity. Break up the top 20 big banks in the world so they stop manipulating the world, and so they aren't Too Big To Fail. Penalize High Frequency Traders and day traders and promote investing in stocks instead of gambling. Get rid of dark pools and put equities and derivatives trade on highly transparent markets again. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.
The main problem is the genie is already out of the bottle. Even if you could fix Wall Street, most of the shenanigans have already moved to The City. If you fix The City they will probably just move to Dubai, or Hong Kong or some island in the Caribbean.
I'm totally sick of listening to CNBC at this point because 20 times a day they talk about QE. Begging and pleading for QE, parsing central banker statements looking for QE, euphoria when there is QE, euphoria with an every diminishing half life, disappointment when there isn't QE. Zerohedge is a "goldbug" only because the Fed already massively printed to get out of 2008 which is why gold is $1600 instead of $600, and chances are all the central banks are going to keep printing to get out of the debt hole they are in. The central banks need to stop printing, restore interest rates to sane levels and let the chips fall where they may. It will be a disaster for a year or two but the system will get purged and then maybe it will recover and be a little less insane. Printining money and financial repression is rewarding irresponsible debtors and screwing everyone else. If you want to end misallocation of resources then currencies and interest rates need to return to sanity instead of functioning as economic heroin.
"Noah has been a physics major at Stanford, a...
"Noah has been a physics major at Stanford, an academic editor in Japan, and (currently) a PhD candidate in economics at the University of Michigan. In the fall he will start as an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook. At that point, he will commence solving all the problems of the world."
You're off to a lousy start solving the world's problems by bashing ZH.
You're off to a lousy start solving the world's problems by bashing ZH.
Hey, Noah, sorry to hear about your <a href="http:...
Hey, Noah, sorry to hear about your impending cancer.
another blogging idiot looking for 2 mins of fame....
another blogging idiot looking for 2 mins of fame. first and last visit
1. No one knows what percentage of Zero Hedge rea...
1. No one knows what percentage of Zero Hedge readers are trading on that information. I don't read it for trading reasons at all.
2. Zero hedge has one prevailing theme. It is "things are not as they seem". The corollary is " a big part of the reason is the deceit by banks, HFT firms, firms and politicians have a vested interests in preserving certain ways of doing business" and "you can't rely on regulators at all to do their job".
3. I agree with the theme and corollary. In my opinion, if you don't see the premise is correct it's because you don't want to (for whatever reason) doing so despite all evidence to the contrary.
2. Zero hedge has one prevailing theme. It is "things are not as they seem". The corollary is " a big part of the reason is the deceit by banks, HFT firms, firms and politicians have a vested interests in preserving certain ways of doing business" and "you can't rely on regulators at all to do their job".
3. I agree with the theme and corollary. In my opinion, if you don't see the premise is correct it's because you don't want to (for whatever reason) doing so despite all evidence to the contrary.
Gold is not just a hedge for hyperinflation. It&#...
Gold is not just a hedge for hyperinflation. It's also a hedge against worthless fiat money and the loss of confidence of in all governments. Why would anyone believe that this financial mess that governments and central banks have created can or will be solved by them acting even more reckless than they did in creating it in the first place?
Fix a debt crisis with an astronomical amount of more debt? Who in mainstream media has even questioned this concept like zerohedge has since before the crisis even began?
If you're anti-zerohedge, I have to assume you're pro-Paul Krugman/Ben Bernanke and where do you really think that will leave us at some point when they can no longer keep the house of cards standing?
Fix a debt crisis with an astronomical amount of more debt? Who in mainstream media has even questioned this concept like zerohedge has since before the crisis even began?
If you're anti-zerohedge, I have to assume you're pro-Paul Krugman/Ben Bernanke and where do you really think that will leave us at some point when they can no longer keep the house of cards standing?
This is meaningless this above body of writing, wh...
This is meaningless this above body of writing, what is the point of the author? Site Z is bad because hyperinflation has not yet occurred? Life is not this black and white, thankfully
Funny enough, I just got done writing about the ZH...
Funny enough, I just got done writing about the ZH boys myself, a couple of weeks ago. My own piece wasn't as much of a critique of their essence so much as it was a complaint about what you refer to at the end of your piece: that ZH is a frequently-dishonest haven for goldbug/Austerian types who seem to have no problem with mangling the facts in service of making their points.
What I can't stand is how they lift figures of...
What I can't stand is how they lift figures of lesser-known employment numbers, straight from bls.gov, then repost as "The Unemployment figures the government doesn't want you to see!!!"
Your assuming he has the stamina to endure a real ...
Your assuming he has the stamina to endure a real job. There is a reason why the private sector pays more than outdated academia.
No 3 months summer vacations in the private sector.
No 3 months summer vacations in the private sector.
To encourage this poor student. He'll need to ...
To encourage this poor student. He'll need to get more advertising if he is to escape year 6 of his PhD and moms basement. Real life work experience wouldn't be a bad thing either for this student.
Dude, was looking at your cv. Your missing a page....
Dude, was looking at your cv. Your missing a page. The one that lists your actual real life job experience. Oh right, year 6 of your PhD. How's mom's basement working out for you?
Nice stunt Mr. Smith Hitting on ZH also means us, ...
Nice stunt Mr. Smith
Hitting on ZH also means us, the readers and it looks like you got your ass wiped
Hitting on ZH also means us, the readers and it looks like you got your ass wiped
Zerohedge is obviously maintained by loonies who b...
Zerohedge is obviously maintained by loonies who buy perpetual motion machine blueprints off the internet and vote for Ron Paul. However, they do churn out data-points secondhand at a fantastic rate. As long as you don't read their scaremonge... I mean: analysis, they're pretty useful.
However, Noah's idea of efficient markets and all that is pretty nutty too -- albeit of a slightly different flavor. I'm guessing that Noah, like most economists, doesn't have much actual interest in financial markets. What Noah doesn't seem to understand is that the idea of market equilibrium is a fantasy cooked up by economists and is largely meaningless when it comes to the real world.
The real world, as Keynes (an investor...) well knew, is characterised by fundamental uncertainty. For example, last week you could have made a pretty penny by shorting the euro at the start of the week. Now, that depended basically on whether the ECB was going to cut interest rates. So, the whole idea was to look at data and try to figure out whether they would or not. At the end of the day -- since you cannot know the future (as Noah implicitly thinks) -- you're placing a bet. However, as long as you know what you're doing it won't be a completely senseless bet.
So, I'd dare to say that Noah is actually the flip-side of Zerohedge. Whereas Zerohedge believe that the economy and the financial markets are perpetually and hopelessly out of balance and that the whole thing will soon collapse leaving only those holding gold bars with wealth, Noah and the neoclassicals believe that the markets are moving from one equilibrium to another through some 'invisible hand' process that when looked at from the outside appears to be something like an idea of God. Who would I trust for investment advice? Neither.
However, Noah's idea of efficient markets and all that is pretty nutty too -- albeit of a slightly different flavor. I'm guessing that Noah, like most economists, doesn't have much actual interest in financial markets. What Noah doesn't seem to understand is that the idea of market equilibrium is a fantasy cooked up by economists and is largely meaningless when it comes to the real world.
The real world, as Keynes (an investor...) well knew, is characterised by fundamental uncertainty. For example, last week you could have made a pretty penny by shorting the euro at the start of the week. Now, that depended basically on whether the ECB was going to cut interest rates. So, the whole idea was to look at data and try to figure out whether they would or not. At the end of the day -- since you cannot know the future (as Noah implicitly thinks) -- you're placing a bet. However, as long as you know what you're doing it won't be a completely senseless bet.
So, I'd dare to say that Noah is actually the flip-side of Zerohedge. Whereas Zerohedge believe that the economy and the financial markets are perpetually and hopelessly out of balance and that the whole thing will soon collapse leaving only those holding gold bars with wealth, Noah and the neoclassicals believe that the markets are moving from one equilibrium to another through some 'invisible hand' process that when looked at from the outside appears to be something like an idea of God. Who would I trust for investment advice? Neither.
I would give ZH kudos for posting many articles th...
I would give ZH kudos for posting many articles that express different points of view. Seriously, I feel stupid because I don't get the point of this post.
Financial Advisers Twickenham
Financial Advisers Twickenham
So you posted something on the internet, which got...
So you posted something on the internet, which got a disproportionate reception, what are u 12?
So you posted something on the internet, which got...
So you posted something on the internet, which got a disproportionate reception, what are u 12?
You posted something on the internet that received...
You posted something on the internet that received a disproportionate reaction... what are u, 12 years old?
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the inv...
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the investment world (with the track record to back it up) has to say about Zero Hedge.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the inv...
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the investment world (with the track record to back it up) has to say about Zero Hedge.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the inv...
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the investment world (with the track record to back it up) has to say about Zero Hedge.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
These comments are hilarious. It's akin to t...
These comments are hilarious.
It's akin to telling a five-year old that it's dangerous to poke a hornet's nest and having them reply, "You idiot, what would you know?" just as he is being stung.
More seriously, you should get some advertising for your site the next time you incite the goldbugs. Surely it's a decent way to pay off any student debt?
And, next time could you try and work in a reference to Dunning-Krueger?
It's akin to telling a five-year old that it's dangerous to poke a hornet's nest and having them reply, "You idiot, what would you know?" just as he is being stung.
More seriously, you should get some advertising for your site the next time you incite the goldbugs. Surely it's a decent way to pay off any student debt?
And, next time could you try and work in a reference to Dunning-Krueger?
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the inv...
Read here what one of the sharpest guys in the investment world (with the track record to back it up) has to say about Zero Hedge.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/766/Proof-That-Zero-Hedge-Cannot-Be-Trusted.html
He basically says they are crooks and con artists making money from sheep who read their trash.
Thanks for taking the time to discuss that, I real...
Thanks for taking the time to discuss that, I really feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic.
"Because there's another problem here. If...
"Because there's another problem here. If the writers of Zero Hedge really knew some information that could allow them to beat the market, why in God's name would they tell it to you?"
A good strategy you want to keep secret. A good trade you want to publicize (after taking a position).
A good strategy you want to keep secret. A good trade you want to publicize (after taking a position).
I think Noah has missed the point. No one "tr...
I think Noah has missed the point. No one "trades" on tips from ZH - because you can't.
ZH keep on mentioning the Greek and Spanish local/UK law bond spread.
E*Trade does not allow you to short Spanish 10 yr local law bonds and go long UK law ones. If you know of a desk willing to let me place a $1m trade let me know?
Noah has picked up on the "re-blogging" of some of the strangest financial newsletter writers I have come across. These are real doom and gloom guys and I doubt anyone who follows ZH actually reads them and I am fairly sure no one "trades" them.
That said ZH did at first reminded me of an old Russian web news site posting anti West propaganda until I figured out what it was all about.
ZH keep on mentioning the Greek and Spanish local/UK law bond spread.
E*Trade does not allow you to short Spanish 10 yr local law bonds and go long UK law ones. If you know of a desk willing to let me place a $1m trade let me know?
Noah has picked up on the "re-blogging" of some of the strangest financial newsletter writers I have come across. These are real doom and gloom guys and I doubt anyone who follows ZH actually reads them and I am fairly sure no one "trades" them.
That said ZH did at first reminded me of an old Russian web news site posting anti West propaganda until I figured out what it was all about.
What are you talking about? Noah went to graduate ...
What are you talking about? Noah went to graduate school for free, and now he has a job for life thanks to tenure. Seems like he went long his human capital and is about to cash in. Forever.
The only way he could have cashed in even more would have been to be slightly lazy than he was and instead of getting a PhD going into a quant shop. Then he would have been a 22 year old Stanford physicist making 250k a year instead of a 27 year old Michigan economist making whatever tenure, 60 year?
The only way he could have cashed in even more would have been to be slightly lazy than he was and instead of getting a PhD going into a quant shop. Then he would have been a 22 year old Stanford physicist making 250k a year instead of a 27 year old Michigan economist making whatever tenure, 60 year?
Seems like you could have just crossed out zerohed...
Seems like you could have just crossed out zerohedge and left "financial blog site X" and then went on your argument about trading on news published by someone else is foolish. Which it is.
And there is so much to mock about zerohedge, it is a rich as a target as Cochrane or the other Chicago folks. Oh well!
And there is so much to mock about zerohedge, it is a rich as a target as Cochrane or the other Chicago folks. Oh well!
Minggu, 08 Juli 2012
1. ZH is a financial blog - not a news agency. 2. ...
1. ZH is a financial blog - not a news agency.
2. Yes, they have an opinion, but it is a blog!
3. They are popular among intelligent readers who tend to agree with their "agenda" - why? Because ZH rules!
2. Yes, they have an opinion, but it is a blog!
3. They are popular among intelligent readers who tend to agree with their "agenda" - why? Because ZH rules!
Noah... pretty strong words and opinions from some...
Noah... pretty strong words and opinions from someone who's afraid to leave the safe, pretty green grass of academia. Like they say, those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.
ZH is also useful for off-the-chart financial inve...
ZH is also useful for off-the-chart financial investigation, including different insights. Logically, they're great big "bears" (as in "put your money under the mattress") who doubt many of today's financial development: as Tyler Durden. It's character writing: as you say "your generation's Platonic ideal of pure masculinity" is also a guy that organises a nationwide fight club / revolutionary movement, on his "off", while he cultivates a double personality and produces soap by effectively recycling using a by-product of advanced medical assistance: for instance, as rubber is being used to tarmac roads, a great, expensive technology. So these are real people, so bearish and unbelievers that they might want to destroy the system - Tyler Durden. It's not to make money out of it - the few money-making bits, like 2s10s are accessible mostly to professionals.
Most likely you did not understand ZH, you're just attacking to get these profound comments on it and form an opinion on other people's pocket: here you go, a good chunk. 'Cause I really haven't found another place posting shadow banking figures - that is hard-work.
Most likely you did not understand ZH, you're just attacking to get these profound comments on it and form an opinion on other people's pocket: here you go, a good chunk. 'Cause I really haven't found another place posting shadow banking figures - that is hard-work.
Then the question is why did you post this comment...
Then the question is why did you post this comment at all?!?!??!?!?!
I don't know why zerohedge or anyone else care...
I don't know why zerohedge or anyone else cares what another half-baked unsophisticated armchair "economist" thinks. This Noah Smith character is unremarkable and irrelevant.
<i>This guy is a LIAR</i> Dear Anonymous Noah Sm...
This guy is a LIAR
Dear Anonymous
Noah Smith posts under his real name and puts his credibility and a promising career on the line every time he does a blog post. I have been reading Noahpinion for about a year and it seems to me that he has a great deal intellectual integrity.
Dear Anonymous
Noah Smith posts under his real name and puts his credibility and a promising career on the line every time he does a blog post. I have been reading Noahpinion for about a year and it seems to me that he has a great deal intellectual integrity.
when the minsky moment comes, creditors will not t...
when the minsky moment comes, creditors will not take dollars. the treasury will need hard assets, not debased paper. who benefits from the biggest bubble in history? the guardian and owner of most of the worlds gold: the NY Fed. Bernanke said it himself, gold is money. its wacky to think that the biggest owner of gold is not in on the biggest pump and dump of all time! ZH latest post is a cry: please dont make me do it. but the die is cast.
A very long-winded way to say "if you're ...
A very long-winded way to say "if you're so smart, why ain't you rich?"
Well, same question goes back to you, Noah!
> For example, here's a bunch of posts from 2009 predicting imminent
> hyperinflation. Hope you didn't make any trades based on that bit
> of wisdom!
I actually did, I bought some more physical gold (which I did for the first time in my life in 2008). And I still feel really good about owning it. The only thing I am predicting is that the chance of hyperinflation in the US is not zero anymore. But that alone is an important fact not many people get.
Well, same question goes back to you, Noah!
> For example, here's a bunch of posts from 2009 predicting imminent
> hyperinflation. Hope you didn't make any trades based on that bit
> of wisdom!
I actually did, I bought some more physical gold (which I did for the first time in my life in 2008). And I still feel really good about owning it. The only thing I am predicting is that the chance of hyperinflation in the US is not zero anymore. But that alone is an important fact not many people get.
A little late to the game here. While one can ha...
A little late to the game here.
While one can have any opinion they want about the usefulness of Zerohedge. The blogger makes the point it is not.
However, was the point of this article
A) to be constructive on financial websites which are contrarian in their opinion?
or
B) Do a hit job on Zerohedge because the blogger does not agree with the politics of the site?
In the comments, there are plenty of examples by the blogger of his dislike of ZH for being critical of President Obama and having a viewpoint on Gold and Inflation.
My guess would be NS is a liberal who wants to maintain the status quo delusion in order for him to not find out all the student loan debt he has will never be repaid.
While one can have any opinion they want about the usefulness of Zerohedge. The blogger makes the point it is not.
However, was the point of this article
A) to be constructive on financial websites which are contrarian in their opinion?
or
B) Do a hit job on Zerohedge because the blogger does not agree with the politics of the site?
In the comments, there are plenty of examples by the blogger of his dislike of ZH for being critical of President Obama and having a viewpoint on Gold and Inflation.
My guess would be NS is a liberal who wants to maintain the status quo delusion in order for him to not find out all the student loan debt he has will never be repaid.
dwb, Forget the ZH/Tyler Durden/ gold thread. Of...
dwb,
Forget the ZH/Tyler Durden/ gold thread.
Of course Central Banks manipulate money, thats their job.
A better questions is, "Who benefits from this manipulation?"
As you correctly point out, SS beneficiaries will be hurt. But, this has been a known for at least 10 years, by my count.
So, again, who benefits?
Forget the ZH/Tyler Durden/ gold thread.
Of course Central Banks manipulate money, thats their job.
A better questions is, "Who benefits from this manipulation?"
As you correctly point out, SS beneficiaries will be hurt. But, this has been a known for at least 10 years, by my count.
So, again, who benefits?
oh i forgot another parallel: Tyler Durden lives o...
oh i forgot another parallel: Tyler Durden lives on "paper street". of course one naive interpretation is that its because Tyler Durden did not really exist (a street that only exists on paper), but the the deeper meaning of course is that the paper is fiat money and so when Tyler Durden lives on paper street hes really the Fed.
No. I read it somewhat in 2009 and then stopped. W...
No. I read it somewhat in 2009 and then stopped. When it came time to write this post, I hadn't read it in a while, so I went through and looked at about 100 posts (a "casual glance", given the site's large amount of traffic). I saw that it had become a lot more goldbuggy and anti-Obama than when I had read it in 2009.
I'm not a liar.
I'm not a liar.
To all who read this Blog: This guy is a LIAR. If...
To all who read this Blog:
This guy is a LIAR. If you read all the comments you will see he's a liar. 1st, NS says he did a "causual glance" at ZH. Then he says he's been "reading it since 2009". One of the later posts said "during the time he spent researching ZH."
This guy is a LIAR. If you read all the comments you will see he's a liar. 1st, NS says he did a "causual glance" at ZH. Then he says he's been "reading it since 2009". One of the later posts said "during the time he spent researching ZH."
<i>Maybe the problem you are having understanding ...
Maybe the problem you are having understanding ZH is you are viewing them through a prism colored by your obvious total obsession with the almighty trade.
Yeah, maybe so. Maybe letting news slowly color and inform your worldview isn't the same thing as making a trade based on some stock tip...I'm not sure.
They ridicule "traders" like yourself
Like ME??? I don't trade.
One of the reasons the world is a train wreck lately, there are way too many people like yourself chasing to few money for nothing, chicks for free trades, instead of making things, building things, adding actual value to the world. Real wealth comes from builders and makers, not traders. Traders tend to be the parasites in the financial jungle these days.
Well, I tend to agree with this, given that financial theory predicts that in a more rational world we wouldn't need to trade very much.
When all the value creators in the world are gone, the house of cards the traders have built will come tumbling down. Actually it already is coming down.
Yes, that definitely seems to be true...
Lets hope value creators rise again from the rubble of the ramshackle house the traders built.
Yes...what do you think needs to happen, policy-wise, in order for value creators to rise again?
Yeah, maybe so. Maybe letting news slowly color and inform your worldview isn't the same thing as making a trade based on some stock tip...I'm not sure.
They ridicule "traders" like yourself
Like ME??? I don't trade.
One of the reasons the world is a train wreck lately, there are way too many people like yourself chasing to few money for nothing, chicks for free trades, instead of making things, building things, adding actual value to the world. Real wealth comes from builders and makers, not traders. Traders tend to be the parasites in the financial jungle these days.
Well, I tend to agree with this, given that financial theory predicts that in a more rational world we wouldn't need to trade very much.
When all the value creators in the world are gone, the house of cards the traders have built will come tumbling down. Actually it already is coming down.
Yes, that definitely seems to be true...
Lets hope value creators rise again from the rubble of the ramshackle house the traders built.
Yes...what do you think needs to happen, policy-wise, in order for value creators to rise again?
What do you think the fed is going to say "ye...
What do you think the fed is going to say "yes please buy gold" right on their own website or Congressional testimony? They need a believable alter ego. seriously, think about all the parallels.. blowing up a skyscraper at the end, Tyler Durden being a figment of the Narrators imagination. What better alter ego than Tyler Durden, a schizo character, to promote a schizo scheme to solve the ponzi twin deficits by a massive gold pump and dump on you the willing bagholder.
the federal reserve is the largest single holder of gold in the world, and has the biggest incentive to pump up the price of gold, which ZH does a nice job of once again pumping not once but thrice in their response to Noah. why do you think the government blew up the twin towers right as gold started taking off - because the Treasury traders at Cantor Fitzgerald knew about it and were about to go public. again - the skyscraper parallel.
The target price is only $4130 because the FOMC is helping the republicans take back the white house, so those social security benefits will be reduced, and therefore those bonds in the social security trust fund need not be repaid - intergovernmental debt is irrelevant. Central banks manipulate everything, including the price of the largest asset they own. dude, wake up!
the federal reserve is the largest single holder of gold in the world, and has the biggest incentive to pump up the price of gold, which ZH does a nice job of once again pumping not once but thrice in their response to Noah. why do you think the government blew up the twin towers right as gold started taking off - because the Treasury traders at Cantor Fitzgerald knew about it and were about to go public. again - the skyscraper parallel.
The target price is only $4130 because the FOMC is helping the republicans take back the white house, so those social security benefits will be reduced, and therefore those bonds in the social security trust fund need not be repaid - intergovernmental debt is irrelevant. Central banks manipulate everything, including the price of the largest asset they own. dude, wake up!
Maybe the problem you are having understanding ZH ...
Maybe the problem you are having understanding ZH is you are viewing them through a prism colored by your obvious total obsession with the almighty trade. They ridicule "traders" like yourself as much as bankers and politicians which may be one reason you hate them so.
One of the reasons the world is a train wreck lately, there are way too many people like yourself chasing to few money for nothing, chicks for free trades, instead of making things, building things, adding actual value to the world. Real wealth comes from builders and makers, not traders. Traders tend to be the parasites in the financial jungle these days. When they hauled goods from one of the other on ships, horses and camels they served a purpose. When they sit at a computer all day moving virtual money from place to place they serve none.
When all the value creators in the world are gone, the house of cards the traders have built will come tumbling down. Actually it already is coming down. ZH is mostly doing the play by play. The traders who are watching the house they built crumble undestandably have a great deal of angst having to listen to the color commentary.
Lets hope value creators rise again from the rubble of the ramshackle house the traders built.
One of the reasons the world is a train wreck lately, there are way too many people like yourself chasing to few money for nothing, chicks for free trades, instead of making things, building things, adding actual value to the world. Real wealth comes from builders and makers, not traders. Traders tend to be the parasites in the financial jungle these days. When they hauled goods from one of the other on ships, horses and camels they served a purpose. When they sit at a computer all day moving virtual money from place to place they serve none.
When all the value creators in the world are gone, the house of cards the traders have built will come tumbling down. Actually it already is coming down. ZH is mostly doing the play by play. The traders who are watching the house they built crumble undestandably have a great deal of angst having to listen to the color commentary.
Lets hope value creators rise again from the rubble of the ramshackle house the traders built.
Great response A. "If your analysis of ZH is...
Great response A.
"If your analysis of ZH is defined around the idea of hyperinflation and Euro collapse then you haven't been reading ZH much. "
If the author HAD been reading ZH he would notice the following:
1) there is only 1 Tyler Durden, near as I can tell. All posts are credited to their authors with links provided to the original website post. Obviously the author has only skimmed the "submitted by" lines.
2) If the author has in fact seen the movie "Fight Club" he still doesn't understand what the movie is about.
3) ZH provides the best financial/economic news on the web, bar none. Including a large number of articles featuring original thinking and analysis you won't see anywhere else. Why? Because other "authors" (read: blogging trash) and journalists aren't smart enough to analyze it and/or are too scared to report it.
"If your analysis of ZH is defined around the idea of hyperinflation and Euro collapse then you haven't been reading ZH much. "
If the author HAD been reading ZH he would notice the following:
1) there is only 1 Tyler Durden, near as I can tell. All posts are credited to their authors with links provided to the original website post. Obviously the author has only skimmed the "submitted by" lines.
2) If the author has in fact seen the movie "Fight Club" he still doesn't understand what the movie is about.
3) ZH provides the best financial/economic news on the web, bar none. Including a large number of articles featuring original thinking and analysis you won't see anywhere else. Why? Because other "authors" (read: blogging trash) and journalists aren't smart enough to analyze it and/or are too scared to report it.
dwb, Gold maybe a bubble, but it is most certainl...
dwb,
Gold maybe a bubble, but it is most certainly not being be promoted by GS and the FED.
Both entities benefit from the fungibility of a fiat currency. It is the essence of fiat money that benefits bankers the most. If bankers had to operate on a 100% reserve ratio (i.e. like how you live our lives, you can only lend your buddy the CASH in your wallet and in your bank account) they would most definitely choose gold.
An alternative to your "The FED will sell its gold to pay the Chinese" is this.
What if the Chinese will only except future US paper backed by gold?
Its an alternative thought to the current hyperinflation/deflation debate.
In 2008, the FED/US Treasury attempted to tell the Chinese that Fannie/Freddie paper was not explicitly backed by the US Treasury(Really US citizens). The Chinese called our bluff and we bailed out Fannie/Freddie bondholders (Maiden Lane 1 was 1/2 Fannie/Freddie paper.)
How owns that paper? Who is buying that paper today?
I hear the Chinese are buying US MBS and shunning US Treasuries. Why?
Because 90% of all mortgages written today are currently guaranteed by the US government. At least this paper is backed by a physical homes and thats the point. The marginal utility of a home is much harder to debase.
Gold maybe a bubble, but it is most certainly not being be promoted by GS and the FED.
Both entities benefit from the fungibility of a fiat currency. It is the essence of fiat money that benefits bankers the most. If bankers had to operate on a 100% reserve ratio (i.e. like how you live our lives, you can only lend your buddy the CASH in your wallet and in your bank account) they would most definitely choose gold.
An alternative to your "The FED will sell its gold to pay the Chinese" is this.
What if the Chinese will only except future US paper backed by gold?
Its an alternative thought to the current hyperinflation/deflation debate.
In 2008, the FED/US Treasury attempted to tell the Chinese that Fannie/Freddie paper was not explicitly backed by the US Treasury(Really US citizens). The Chinese called our bluff and we bailed out Fannie/Freddie bondholders (Maiden Lane 1 was 1/2 Fannie/Freddie paper.)
How owns that paper? Who is buying that paper today?
I hear the Chinese are buying US MBS and shunning US Treasuries. Why?
Because 90% of all mortgages written today are currently guaranteed by the US government. At least this paper is backed by a physical homes and thats the point. The marginal utility of a home is much harder to debase.
This is wacky, dwb. To pay off the international...
This is wacky, dwb.
To pay off the international holdings of treasuries (at current debt levels), the Fed would need to manipulate gold to the price of gold up to at least $8,000 (current gold prices value US gold holdings at $500 billion, so you'd need a very significant hike), though there is no real indication that this kind of thing would happen.
It is much, much easier to default on the debt gradually through inflating the currency, which will lift the price of gold gradually and allow the US to retain its gold reserves.
Of course, as holders of fiat-denominated instruments, the international bond market should understand that this is the case, and accept it.
But if your theory is true, at the very least gold will be sold at far above its current spot value. Even if your theory is wrong gold's nominal value falls in the future, holders of physical gold will still have the only liquid asset with negligible counter-party risk.
So unless you're buying at a price in excess of $8,000 an ounce, it seems highly dubious you will end up as a bagholder. Gold is not going to FOFOA levels any time soon, but it's certainly not in a bubble.
To pay off the international holdings of treasuries (at current debt levels), the Fed would need to manipulate gold to the price of gold up to at least $8,000 (current gold prices value US gold holdings at $500 billion, so you'd need a very significant hike), though there is no real indication that this kind of thing would happen.
It is much, much easier to default on the debt gradually through inflating the currency, which will lift the price of gold gradually and allow the US to retain its gold reserves.
Of course, as holders of fiat-denominated instruments, the international bond market should understand that this is the case, and accept it.
But if your theory is true, at the very least gold will be sold at far above its current spot value. Even if your theory is wrong gold's nominal value falls in the future, holders of physical gold will still have the only liquid asset with negligible counter-party risk.
So unless you're buying at a price in excess of $8,000 an ounce, it seems highly dubious you will end up as a bagholder. Gold is not going to FOFOA levels any time soon, but it's certainly not in a bubble.
Gold is a bubble promoted by the corrupt banks lik...
Gold is a bubble promoted by the corrupt banks like Goldman Sachs at the behest of the Federal Reserve, which is the largest owner of gold in the world. its the last gasp of the dying financial structure so that the federal reserve can collateralize the massive derivative positions held by the rest of the world against US banks, in order to prop up and perpetuate the financial ponzi we know of as the US treasury market. Once Bernanke has manipulated the gold market to their target levels all you suckers will be the biggest bagholders in history as the Fed sells its gold reserves to pay off Chinese debtholders. How does a critic of the financial industry get so many powerpoints from the giant squid, haven't you wondered that? pretty convenient that they have you buying gold in an "etf" that you wont be able access when the ATMs shut down after the banking collapse. not even a shred of useful advice on how to plant crops, field dress an animal to eat, or advice on whether to use #1 or #2 shot against geese. when you are walking around NYC starving because your pizza place closed because they don't take gold, you'll wish you had taken some real advice to prepare for financial armageddon, like having sold all that gold and bought bottles of water, some seeds for crops, a nice plot of real estate to plant , and some weapons and ammo to defend it.
These are good questions...I'll try to take so...
These are good questions...I'll try to take some of them on!
Great post. Wish I could send it to my dad. He sen...
Great post. Wish I could send it to my dad. He sends me stuff from Zero Hedge, and virtually anyone who says we're headed for hyperinflation. If you had a dickless monkey type a blog post saying there was going to hyperinflation, my dad would believe it before listening to Noah.
Noah, I appreciate your responses to my comments ...
Noah,
I appreciate your responses to my comments and I will now add you to the list people I will read.
Again, I will admit that I haven't read your prior posts, so forgive me if I ask for things that you have already posted about.
Themes I would like see discussed in the future:
GDP seems to measure quantity, not quality. Is there another measure of quality we can use?
Why do Central Banks favor a 2% inflation rate? Why 2%? Why not 1% or 3%?
How does a society solve the problem of a bubble brought on by the over-extention of debt?
In the New Deal years (I believe 1933-1935), the US economy grew at a rate of 6-8%, while the US Government ran deficits of 5%. Why then today, is the US economy is growing at 2-3% while running deficits of 10%?
Who does the shadow banking system benefit?
Does war prove that Keynes was right? (Per Krugman)
Respectfully,
Chris
I appreciate your responses to my comments and I will now add you to the list people I will read.
Again, I will admit that I haven't read your prior posts, so forgive me if I ask for things that you have already posted about.
Themes I would like see discussed in the future:
GDP seems to measure quantity, not quality. Is there another measure of quality we can use?
Why do Central Banks favor a 2% inflation rate? Why 2%? Why not 1% or 3%?
How does a society solve the problem of a bubble brought on by the over-extention of debt?
In the New Deal years (I believe 1933-1935), the US economy grew at a rate of 6-8%, while the US Government ran deficits of 5%. Why then today, is the US economy is growing at 2-3% while running deficits of 10%?
Who does the shadow banking system benefit?
Does war prove that Keynes was right? (Per Krugman)
Respectfully,
Chris
Noah, This may surprise you, but people of all ra...
Noah,
This may surprise you, but people of all races, opinions, political parties and so on, get out of bed, go to their job and work together.
After work, we may even go to the bar and have a couple of drinks together!
It does happen, and you know what, its kinda fun.
Don't get stuck on the left/right paradigm, its clouding your economic judgements. You can be liberal and conservative at the same time. You don't have to live in other people's boxes. In fact, the coolest people I know live in the boxes they made their for themselves.
PS Trying to build my own box. Not there yet, but I'm trying.
This may surprise you, but people of all races, opinions, political parties and so on, get out of bed, go to their job and work together.
After work, we may even go to the bar and have a couple of drinks together!
It does happen, and you know what, its kinda fun.
Don't get stuck on the left/right paradigm, its clouding your economic judgements. You can be liberal and conservative at the same time. You don't have to live in other people's boxes. In fact, the coolest people I know live in the boxes they made their for themselves.
PS Trying to build my own box. Not there yet, but I'm trying.
<i>Though another commenter mentioned that the sit...
Though another commenter mentioned that the site audience is whiter than the general populace.
Maybe I'm drawing the wrong inferences from intemperate (inference young), illiterate (inference ESL) comments. :-)
Maybe I'm drawing the wrong inferences from intemperate (inference young), illiterate (inference ESL) comments. :-)
That is very interesting. Though another commenter...
That is very interesting. Though another commenter mentioned that the site audience is whiter than the general populace.
And all but one of the goldbuggy Mises-quoting Ron Paul wingnuts I've talked to in the past couple months have linked me to Zero Hedge articles... ;)
And all but one of the goldbuggy Mises-quoting Ron Paul wingnuts I've talked to in the past couple months have linked me to Zero Hedge articles... ;)
Oh yeah, smarty-pants? Name one five-letter word t...
Oh yeah, smarty-pants? Name one five-letter word that doesn't eat meat, I dare you! ;)
<i>behind ZH's anti-finance veneer is just goo...
behind ZH's anti-finance veneer is just good old right-wingery.
ZH represents a much younger and browner demographic than the Tea Party. Most of the commenters seem to be young libertarians and nihilists with lots of ESL types (inference based on language use) while the Tea Party seems to be mostly old white nihilists. :)
ZH represents a much younger and browner demographic than the Tea Party. Most of the commenters seem to be young libertarians and nihilists with lots of ESL types (inference based on language use) while the Tea Party seems to be mostly old white nihilists. :)
I read ZH and find your use of hyperbole misleadin...
I read ZH and find your use of hyperbole misleading and inaccurate.
One can also go to Yahoo and find racist comments. I do not equate Yahoo with the white supremacist movement.
Also, using a logic string to go from Austria/anti-FED/goldbug to the Confederate States of America is tortured logic.
Tiger is a five letter word.
Tigers eat meat.
Five letter words eat meat.
One can also go to Yahoo and find racist comments. I do not equate Yahoo with the white supremacist movement.
Also, using a logic string to go from Austria/anti-FED/goldbug to the Confederate States of America is tortured logic.
Tiger is a five letter word.
Tigers eat meat.
Five letter words eat meat.
wow, looks like you answered your own question. ht...
wow, looks like you answered your own question. http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/i-found-bizarro-economics-world.html
i bet your commenters will be shocked to learn wrestling is fake too.
i bet your commenters will be shocked to learn wrestling is fake too.
<i>In fact, I would suggest that more on ZH suppor...
In fact, I would suggest that more on ZH support OWS than the Tea Party.
Really? I'm pretty skeptical of that, given all the right-wing stuff I saw when I was researching the site before writing this post. But I'm willing to be convinced.
Really? I'm pretty skeptical of that, given all the right-wing stuff I saw when I was researching the site before writing this post. But I'm willing to be convinced.
<i>I don't know you and I have never read your...
I don't know you and I have never read your site until till today. But, it is glaringly obvious that what you have in education, you lack in real world experience.
This is true. So, we'll see if I change my mind when I get some real-world experience!
Then again, a lot of people draw wrong conclusions from their real-world experiences. People attribute too much of their success to their own skill and too much of their own failure to bad luck. Also, many people's experiences are unusual, but they don't realize that fact. So sometimes it pays to step back and look at things from an academic viewpoint.
This is true. So, we'll see if I change my mind when I get some real-world experience!
Then again, a lot of people draw wrong conclusions from their real-world experiences. People attribute too much of their success to their own skill and too much of their own failure to bad luck. Also, many people's experiences are unusual, but they don't realize that fact. So sometimes it pays to step back and look at things from an academic viewpoint.
oh and also, you just revealed that you have not a...
oh and also, you just revealed that you have not actually read very much of ZH. I have - actually read as much of it as I can every day - and I would dare you to prove me wrong: the ZH posted articles and comments (well, those that are serious) are, in the majority, far from supporters of the Tea Party or the right-wing. You are so wrong Mr. Smith. (In fact, I would suggest that more on ZH support OWS than the Tea Party.) And btw, not supporting Obama does not make you a right-winger and really?? financial reform, reallllly?
I just realized that your post here is not to be taken seriously because you don't even know what you are talking about! What was your motive for this post anyway?
I just realized that your post here is not to be taken seriously because you don't even know what you are talking about! What was your motive for this post anyway?
Noah, "Perfection is attained, not when you ...
Noah,
"Perfection is attained, not when you have nothing left to add, but when you have nothing left to take away." Some French guy, I forgot who, however.
This is a not a left/right paradigm issue as you falsely postulate. That you overlook the fact that much of our current issues come, not from the under regulated FIRE industry, but from the government tinkering in markets (GSE's, The FED, the ECB, etc.). Attributing our current issues along the left-right fault line ignores the fact that both sides have contributed to the mess we find ourselves in.
As someone who has worked in the FIRE industry, all I can offer is that regulation is one of the major roadblocks in capital formation and distribution. The myriad laws of what we can and cannot do with our and our customer's capital prevent of us achieving our true potential.
I don't know you and I have never read your site until till today. But, it is glaringly obvious that what you have in education, you lack in real world experience. I know that this is tough to hear and that, in your mind, you will chalk me up as some right wing/ZH/racist/whatever, so I will offer you this analogy.
You are sex therapist that has never had sex. You can read all the books on the subject, but until you actual participate in the act, you are no expert.
The best regulation is the threat of losing your or your customers money. This has been true since the beginning of time, its true today and will be true in 10,000 years. Learn it, live it and love it!
"Perfection is attained, not when you have nothing left to add, but when you have nothing left to take away." Some French guy, I forgot who, however.
This is a not a left/right paradigm issue as you falsely postulate. That you overlook the fact that much of our current issues come, not from the under regulated FIRE industry, but from the government tinkering in markets (GSE's, The FED, the ECB, etc.). Attributing our current issues along the left-right fault line ignores the fact that both sides have contributed to the mess we find ourselves in.
As someone who has worked in the FIRE industry, all I can offer is that regulation is one of the major roadblocks in capital formation and distribution. The myriad laws of what we can and cannot do with our and our customer's capital prevent of us achieving our true potential.
I don't know you and I have never read your site until till today. But, it is glaringly obvious that what you have in education, you lack in real world experience. I know that this is tough to hear and that, in your mind, you will chalk me up as some right wing/ZH/racist/whatever, so I will offer you this analogy.
You are sex therapist that has never had sex. You can read all the books on the subject, but until you actual participate in the act, you are no expert.
The best regulation is the threat of losing your or your customers money. This has been true since the beginning of time, its true today and will be true in 10,000 years. Learn it, live it and love it!
If that is what this post was all about, why didn&...
If that is what this post was all about, why didn't you just say so?
On the spot! Some of the worst logic I've ever...
On the spot! Some of the worst logic I've ever seen in this blog post.
I didn't say ZH itself is mostly white suprema...
I didn't say ZH itself is mostly white supremacist. But I've been having conversations with an increasing number of "Austrians", anti-Fed people, goldbugs, and Ron Paul supporters, and nearly every single time the conversation has somehow turned to how awesome the Confederate States of America was...I kid thee not.
<i>Hope this little pop-stand does well for you Mr...
Hope this little pop-stand does well for you Mr. Noah Smith, perhaps if you can muster some original thought you may be invited to submit as a guest on Zero Hedge someday.
Oh, a man can dream, can't he!
Oh, a man can dream, can't he!
"...mostly just white supremacists, from what...
"...mostly just white supremacists, from what I've seen."
No doubt that there is some racist comments/commentors on ZH, but that statement is just hyperbole and you know it.
No doubt that there is some racist comments/commentors on ZH, but that statement is just hyperbole and you know it.
Here's a question: If ZH is so anti-finance in...
Here's a question: If ZH is so anti-finance industry, why the heck do they keep running pieces dissing Obama, who A) enacted the most sweeping reform of the industry since the Depression, and B) is regularly castigated by establishment types for being too insulting toward the finance industry???
Answer: Because, just like the Tea Party, behind ZH's anti-finance veneer is just good old right-wingery.
Answer: Because, just like the Tea Party, behind ZH's anti-finance veneer is just good old right-wingery.
Be the cause plastics, pesticides or an over-domin...
Be the cause plastics, pesticides or an over-dominate mother or some unrealized internal sexual conflict; Mr. Noah Smith is just another example of over-estroginization occurring in our world...
What's the matter with a little testosterone? The MSM sure could use a little more of it in their "news" departments...
Isn't the foundation stone of economic theory something about "scarce resources and unlimited desires"...Sounds pretty aggressive to me...Macro-economic theory starts and and ends with who is holding the biggest gun. Period. All the rest is dog-and-pony. Yes Mr. Noah Smith you have wasted your mind and talent to become a barker for a dog and pony show.
I laugh at the idea of 20 somethings getting all worked up at a ZH article...Yea I'm sure there are a few, but there are way to many personal stories concerning bad pension experiences to jive with that.
Yea lot's of garbage in comments, but like fight club the weak s**t don't last long...Some of the best thoughts I've encountered on the Interwebs I've found from there...you end up following some people in the comments section as much as you do TD...
And if you don't appreciate the brilliance which is the character of Tyler Durden - Palahniuk created one of the great post-pop-culture anti-hero's of the age - being utilized as a pseudonym, then you have no sense irony or humor...An observation confirmed in your forced, pedestrian prose. Perhaps it's your lack of testosterone, but good writing comes from the balls as much the mind.
Speaking of good writing, I would read TD (most of them anyway) just for the over-generous displays of sophisticated humor, besides what ever the content may be...
Hope this little pop-stand does well for you Mr. Noah Smith, perhaps if you can muster some original thought you may be invited to submit as a guest on Zero Hedge someday.
What's the matter with a little testosterone? The MSM sure could use a little more of it in their "news" departments...
Isn't the foundation stone of economic theory something about "scarce resources and unlimited desires"...Sounds pretty aggressive to me...Macro-economic theory starts and and ends with who is holding the biggest gun. Period. All the rest is dog-and-pony. Yes Mr. Noah Smith you have wasted your mind and talent to become a barker for a dog and pony show.
I laugh at the idea of 20 somethings getting all worked up at a ZH article...Yea I'm sure there are a few, but there are way to many personal stories concerning bad pension experiences to jive with that.
Yea lot's of garbage in comments, but like fight club the weak s**t don't last long...Some of the best thoughts I've encountered on the Interwebs I've found from there...you end up following some people in the comments section as much as you do TD...
And if you don't appreciate the brilliance which is the character of Tyler Durden - Palahniuk created one of the great post-pop-culture anti-hero's of the age - being utilized as a pseudonym, then you have no sense irony or humor...An observation confirmed in your forced, pedestrian prose. Perhaps it's your lack of testosterone, but good writing comes from the balls as much the mind.
Speaking of good writing, I would read TD (most of them anyway) just for the over-generous displays of sophisticated humor, besides what ever the content may be...
Hope this little pop-stand does well for you Mr. Noah Smith, perhaps if you can muster some original thought you may be invited to submit as a guest on Zero Hedge someday.
One thing that Zero Hedge has been getting right i...
One thing that Zero Hedge has been getting right is the Libor scandal. A lot of people should go to prison for that particular group of frauds.
PS: I am a Sixty-ish investor trying to protect my Seven figure retirement fund with a view to being able to live comfortably in retirement.
PS: I am a Sixty-ish investor trying to protect my Seven figure retirement fund with a view to being able to live comfortably in retirement.
I'm definitely being sincere. Reading Zero Hed...
I'm definitely being sincere. Reading Zero Hedge to round out one's worldview is fine and great (though to be honest I think it has a ton of crazy goldbuggery, anti-Fed conspiracy theories, and other such). And it's great to have people saying "CNBC sucks", for the exact same reasons I mention in this post!
I have yet to read about a time in history when a ...
I have yet to read about a time in history when a society threw gold into the streets.
Stop. You're really making me want to <i>like<...
Thank you Noah, assuming that you are being sincer...
Thank you Noah, assuming that you are being sincere. I hope you take your education and use it as a starting point to learn how the real world works. Time and experience will change your opinion about many things in life, including what is really important. Good luck and keep an open mind.
I have done pretty well following zerohedge.com M...
I have done pretty well following zerohedge.com
My average cost per ounce of gold during the time I followed zerohedge is around 950/ounce
Doing better than most funds.
Sadly the comments posted here are of better quality than the blog, wonder why. Oh right, because they are zerohedge readers. Watch your traffic go down dramatically in a couple of days.
My average cost per ounce of gold during the time I followed zerohedge is around 950/ounce
Doing better than most funds.
Sadly the comments posted here are of better quality than the blog, wonder why. Oh right, because they are zerohedge readers. Watch your traffic go down dramatically in a couple of days.
Nah, he's doing this out of the goodness of hi...
Nah, he's doing this out of the goodness of his heart ;)
More likely explanation:
"It's the threat of not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people holding the reins, have their hands on the switch; They go bat shit crazy"
More likely explanation:
"It's the threat of not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people holding the reins, have their hands on the switch; They go bat shit crazy"
<i>The main message of ZH is that the western fina...
The main message of ZH is that the western finance system is utterly corrupt and broken all the way to the core.
Are you saying they are wrong Mr. Smith?
To be honest? I don't know. Some is corrupt. A lot is broken.
Are you saying that deference in reporting on the financial industry is a good thing Mr. Smith?
No! And to be honest I liked Zero Hedge back when that was what I read there, before it became all goldbuggery and "Obama sucks" and "hyperinflation is coming"...
PS: I am a Sixty something investor trying to protect my Seven figure retirement fund with a view of having something to leave my children.
Well, good luck to you...I would not be taken in by the hyperinflation hysteria if I were you...
Are you saying they are wrong Mr. Smith?
To be honest? I don't know. Some is corrupt. A lot is broken.
Are you saying that deference in reporting on the financial industry is a good thing Mr. Smith?
No! And to be honest I liked Zero Hedge back when that was what I read there, before it became all goldbuggery and "Obama sucks" and "hyperinflation is coming"...
PS: I am a Sixty something investor trying to protect my Seven figure retirement fund with a view of having something to leave my children.
Well, good luck to you...I would not be taken in by the hyperinflation hysteria if I were you...
Sir Thx for the reply. I am an avid reader, but wi...
Sir
Thx for the reply.
I am an avid reader, but will never buy gold. I am quite interested in their analysis but draw my own conclusions. If you provide good analysis I can be an avid reader of your blog also.
In general, people who are looking for money making tips, will always get screwed. I've experienced that personally in the past.
However, as far as analysis, theirs is quite fantastic.
- 1)Facts are one thing
- 2)Analysis is another thing (interpretation of facts)
- 3)Conclusions are totally a different thing (different conclusions can be drawn from the same sets of facts).
I am interested in 1 and 2 and that includes your blog that I will place in favorites to see what you have to teach me.
Number 3 is my responsibility.
Thx for the reply.
I am an avid reader, but will never buy gold. I am quite interested in their analysis but draw my own conclusions. If you provide good analysis I can be an avid reader of your blog also.
In general, people who are looking for money making tips, will always get screwed. I've experienced that personally in the past.
However, as far as analysis, theirs is quite fantastic.
- 1)Facts are one thing
- 2)Analysis is another thing (interpretation of facts)
- 3)Conclusions are totally a different thing (different conclusions can be drawn from the same sets of facts).
I am interested in 1 and 2 and that includes your blog that I will place in favorites to see what you have to teach me.
Number 3 is my responsibility.
ZH people — let's be nice to Noah and keep our...
ZH people — let's be nice to Noah and keep our disagreement with his perception of us at least semi-respectful.
PS Noah, trading the news (any news — whether it's what ZH has on the front page, or Bloomberg, or Reuters, or CNBC) is incredibly, inconceivably and incontrovertibly foolish. I don't think you'll find many ZH readers who disbelieve that notion.
PS Noah, trading the news (any news — whether it's what ZH has on the front page, or Bloomberg, or Reuters, or CNBC) is incredibly, inconceivably and incontrovertibly foolish. I don't think you'll find many ZH readers who disbelieve that notion.
I didn't forget, I didn't know! But I'...
I didn't forget, I didn't know! But I'm not surprised. The goldbug/Austrian/hyperinflationista crowd is really mostly just white supremacists, from what I've seen.
The main message of ZH is that the western finance...
The main message of ZH is that the western finance system is utterly corrupt and broken all the way to the core.
Are you saying they are wrong Mr. Smith?
ZH also tends to be faster and report financial events with less respect to the players than the main stream media.
Are you saying that deference in reporting on the financial industry is a good thing Mr. Smith?
If I have any criticism of ZH it is that some of it's correspondents have not taken account of Krugmans dictum: "Economics is not a morality play" and hence opine about "sound money", "fiat currency" and the like.
The occasional advertisement inherent in some posts (eg: "Buy my newsletter") is simply the price one pays to read many good opinion pieces.
I also note that, unlike ZH, I can't find a single word on your website Mr. Smith, that alludes to the recently exposed corruption of LIBOR and its ground shattering implications. However since the British financial press, of which you are part, are subservient to a fault to the powers that be in Britain, this is not surprising.
To put that another way, I find your attack on ZH to be gratuitous and wrong in fact.
PS: I am a Sixty something investor trying to protect my Seven figure retirement fund with a view of having something to leave my children.
Are you saying they are wrong Mr. Smith?
ZH also tends to be faster and report financial events with less respect to the players than the main stream media.
Are you saying that deference in reporting on the financial industry is a good thing Mr. Smith?
If I have any criticism of ZH it is that some of it's correspondents have not taken account of Krugmans dictum: "Economics is not a morality play" and hence opine about "sound money", "fiat currency" and the like.
The occasional advertisement inherent in some posts (eg: "Buy my newsletter") is simply the price one pays to read many good opinion pieces.
I also note that, unlike ZH, I can't find a single word on your website Mr. Smith, that alludes to the recently exposed corruption of LIBOR and its ground shattering implications. However since the British financial press, of which you are part, are subservient to a fault to the powers that be in Britain, this is not surprising.
To put that another way, I find your attack on ZH to be gratuitous and wrong in fact.
PS: I am a Sixty something investor trying to protect my Seven figure retirement fund with a view of having something to leave my children.
Well, I think that in and of itself is probably a ...
Well, I think that in and of itself is probably a bad tip, since I think stock index funds are a good part of any retail investor's portfolio.
But anyway, it seems like the alternative they've come up with is "buy gold" and "prepare for hyperinflation". That can't be good advice...
But anyway, it seems like the alternative they've come up with is "buy gold" and "prepare for hyperinflation". That can't be good advice...
Noah - you forgot to mention (or did not notice) t...
Noah - you forgot to mention (or did not notice) that there are lots of anti-Semitic comments made on the Zero Hedge website.
Eighty percent of the articles on Zero Hedge and 95% of the comments are garbage but you can filter pretty quickly based on writing style.
Eighty percent of the articles on Zero Hedge and 95% of the comments are garbage but you can filter pretty quickly based on writing style.
Sir Good try. But as far as I remember, Zerohedge ...
Sir
Good try. But as far as I remember, Zerohedge readership is mostly baby boomers.
Though you are right that their predictions have not come up correct, I don't think they care much about their predictions. That's what you've got wrong.
They care about making people NOT to invest with Wall Street and that's their profitable business model.
I personally give them credit for the Retail Investor abandoning the stock market.
The only worldwide famous financial website (not news) people NOT to invest otherwise they're screwed, is ZH.
Good try. But as far as I remember, Zerohedge readership is mostly baby boomers.
Though you are right that their predictions have not come up correct, I don't think they care much about their predictions. That's what you've got wrong.
They care about making people NOT to invest with Wall Street and that's their profitable business model.
I personally give them credit for the Retail Investor abandoning the stock market.
The only worldwide famous financial website (not news) people NOT to invest otherwise they're screwed, is ZH.
Well, I agree with you on the substance...but sinc...
Well, I agree with you on the substance...but since I should be polite and match the tone of your post, you happen to be an obese compulsively farting mutant baboon with half the brains God gave a banana slug...
Congrats on the viewership by slandering ZH. I...
Congrats on the viewership by slandering ZH. I'm just disappointed to see no ads on the page. You wasted the one chance you got to monetize this site
By all means, let me provide an estrogen-fueled ra...
By all means, let me provide an estrogen-fueled rant you little twit.
I call you that because I can just see you padding around Lorch Hall bloviating in earnest.
I was indoctrinated in the UofM economics department roughly twenty years ago, and it took a good twelve to fifteen to shed the gobbledegook I was taught that so obviously did not match what was going on in our economy. That indoctrination might be fine for getting you tenure in another institution of higher delusion, but it doesnt help those of us who actually have to APPLY economics for a living.
The insanity of 2007/2008 was a complete shock, SHOCK I say! to your cohort. I had to seek an alternate hypothesis to how the world worked in that so very crazy time. The path to awareness for me included Calculated Risk, Jim Sinclair, Michael Lewis, The Big Picture, London Banker, finem respice, Epicurian Dealmaker, oh, and Zero Hedge.
I found your juvenile little screed from John Aziz, an economic mind I greatly respect. I found him through Zero Hedge. Cant see how I would have found him otherwise. THAT, is the value I find from Zero Hedge. If you werent such a carictiture of the arrogant little econ PhD, Id suggest you read his blog. But then you might just gum up your head and never finish your dissertation.
I call you that because I can just see you padding around Lorch Hall bloviating in earnest.
I was indoctrinated in the UofM economics department roughly twenty years ago, and it took a good twelve to fifteen to shed the gobbledegook I was taught that so obviously did not match what was going on in our economy. That indoctrination might be fine for getting you tenure in another institution of higher delusion, but it doesnt help those of us who actually have to APPLY economics for a living.
The insanity of 2007/2008 was a complete shock, SHOCK I say! to your cohort. I had to seek an alternate hypothesis to how the world worked in that so very crazy time. The path to awareness for me included Calculated Risk, Jim Sinclair, Michael Lewis, The Big Picture, London Banker, finem respice, Epicurian Dealmaker, oh, and Zero Hedge.
I found your juvenile little screed from John Aziz, an economic mind I greatly respect. I found him through Zero Hedge. Cant see how I would have found him otherwise. THAT, is the value I find from Zero Hedge. If you werent such a carictiture of the arrogant little econ PhD, Id suggest you read his blog. But then you might just gum up your head and never finish your dissertation.
I must be really dense. I have been reading ZH sin...
I must be really dense. I have been reading ZH since 2009 and never once understood it was anything but an aggregator of financial news and social commentary that seems to dig a little deeper and broader than most financial blogs and, need I say, beats MSM to the punch (if MSM ever gets to the punch) days, weeks, even years ahead. I don't understand the connection the author of this post is making between ZH and financial investing. Sure, there are those posting and/or commenting on the site that are trading but I never understood trading to be the purpose of ZH. Does ZH have have a macro view that skews towards anarcho-capitalism, or anti-Obama, anti-Central Bank, whatever? Perhaps, but show me any financial news site out there that doesn't have a point of view. Anyway, is that this author's gripe? Besides, I would give ZH kudos for posting many articles that express different points of view. Seriously, I feel stupid because I don't get the point of this post. Must be because I am a woman.
That is true, maybe ZH is doing it out of the good...
That is true, maybe ZH is doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.
More likely explanation: ZH started as an angry blog, an expression of frustration with the mainstream finance industry/culture the way this blog began as an expression of frustration with mainstream macroeconomics. Then it started to attract lots of goldbugs, Austrians, Fed conspiracy theorists, and other similar American wingnuts. The site owner realized he could make more money catering to that crowd, and quality went downhill. Of course, the testosterone thing was always there, which is what really attracted my attention.
More likely explanation: ZH started as an angry blog, an expression of frustration with the mainstream finance industry/culture the way this blog began as an expression of frustration with mainstream macroeconomics. Then it started to attract lots of goldbugs, Austrians, Fed conspiracy theorists, and other similar American wingnuts. The site owner realized he could make more money catering to that crowd, and quality went downhill. Of course, the testosterone thing was always there, which is what really attracted my attention.
"Update 3: Some people have pointed out that ...
"Update 3: Some people have pointed out that in terms of offering trading tips, there are a lot worse offenders than Zero Hedge. That's certainly true - The Motley Fool and StockTwits come to mind, not to mention Jim Cramer or any show on CNBC. Compared to those sites, Zero Hedge has a lot more news and less tips. I just picked on Zero Hedge because the testosterone thing gave me a perfect opportunity to whip out Barber & Odean. And also because it's become a haven for goldbug/"Austrian"/"hyperinflation-is-coming"/"the Fed is a UN conspiracy to destroy the white race" kind of BS."
Agree completely (same commenter as above).
Agree completely (same commenter as above).
10 points....Noah, I know you meant well, but unfo...
10 points....Noah, I know you meant well, but unfortunately this guy is spot on.
I like the graph from the rebuttal. Sure maybe inv...
I like the graph from the rebuttal. Sure maybe investing in gold has been a better bet then being in the market, but it hasn't been a hedge against inflation just a hedge against a depressed and often volatile market. While the predictions may have been correct some of the analytics still seem to be incorrect and may prove disastrous in the future.
The problem is that gold is not inherently money or a store of value and has the same exposure to market issues as any other good. Sure the gold market has its own characteristics, but it does not mean it is bubble proof.
I will have to disagree with Noah that Zero Hedge gives real advice on trading. ZH is more of a clearing house for unpopular economic ideas. There is not ZH index of stocks other then maybe not being in the market or just investing in gold. Sill I will agree there is a hyper-testosterone driven culture that makes the site almost unbearable and casts even useful analysis as childish just by its tone. Just look at the comments here or on zero hedge to see what I mean.
The problem is that gold is not inherently money or a store of value and has the same exposure to market issues as any other good. Sure the gold market has its own characteristics, but it does not mean it is bubble proof.
I will have to disagree with Noah that Zero Hedge gives real advice on trading. ZH is more of a clearing house for unpopular economic ideas. There is not ZH index of stocks other then maybe not being in the market or just investing in gold. Sill I will agree there is a hyper-testosterone driven culture that makes the site almost unbearable and casts even useful analysis as childish just by its tone. Just look at the comments here or on zero hedge to see what I mean.
You're right, it was a cheapshot. Neverthele...
You're right, it was a cheapshot.
Nevertheless, I think you should read their manifesto. This should bring to light any misconceptions about their mission.
http://www.zerohedge.com/about
There are a number of posts and contributors that are full of shit - I'll give you that. It just so happens that ZH is the best alternative to mainstream financial media. There's a reason why cnbc and bloomberg have seen a mass exodus of subscribers in recent years.
I also think you approached this from an economic theory perspective (i.e. " If the writers of Zero Hedge really knew some information that could allow them to beat the market, why in God's name would they tell it to you?")...maybe these guys believe in morality. Altruism is a virtue that is slowly dying. Interesting how economics doesn't account for these things.
Nevertheless, I think you should read their manifesto. This should bring to light any misconceptions about their mission.
http://www.zerohedge.com/about
There are a number of posts and contributors that are full of shit - I'll give you that. It just so happens that ZH is the best alternative to mainstream financial media. There's a reason why cnbc and bloomberg have seen a mass exodus of subscribers in recent years.
I also think you approached this from an economic theory perspective (i.e. " If the writers of Zero Hedge really knew some information that could allow them to beat the market, why in God's name would they tell it to you?")...maybe these guys believe in morality. Altruism is a virtue that is slowly dying. Interesting how economics doesn't account for these things.
Zero hedge is fantastic , I love the ZH news stori...
Zero hedge is fantastic , I love the ZH news stories. I don't bother reading the comments there though. I don't have the time. I wont be reading you blog because you don't understand ZH is about.
<i>I find it highly amusing that a budding univers...
I find it highly amusing that a budding university professor - of economics, no less - assumes that any journalism or editorial content related to finance and economics that is not actionable as a trade holds no value.
Hey, I don't think that! I read news, after all.
This post is just directed at people who let the stuff they read on Zero Hedge guide their trading behavior...
Hey, I don't think that! I read news, after all.
This post is just directed at people who let the stuff they read on Zero Hedge guide their trading behavior...
Yup. It's just becoming a strange attractor fo...
Yup. It's just becoming a strange attractor for the goldbug Ron Paul kooks. Otherwise I would have written this post about The Motley Fool or some other site...heh.
Hah. I've been in the "real world" ...
Hah. I've been in the "real world" for quite some time. Specifically, the computers/software/IT side of the real world. What I've learned about investing is that the Big Boys are concerned about speed-of-light issues separating them from the trading floor. This suggests that no matter what I do, no matter what I learn, no matter how smart I am, it will be too late. This has been true since at least the mid-90s, when time-to-deploy-new-algorithms was a key advantage of one employer's products.
"Cannie" = "candidate" in Aust...
"Cannie" = "candidate" in Australian?
(Anyway, I like the image...)
(Anyway, I like the image...)
True. Which means Zero Hedge must in turn be less ...
True. Which means Zero Hedge must in turn be less reliable than Fox Business, right?
A. I like your use of "not even wrong". ...
A. I like your use of "not even wrong".
B. Now you see why I always wear a cup to dissertation committee meetings...
B. Now you see why I always wear a cup to dissertation committee meetings...
your tabloid-styled headline failed to match the b...
your tabloid-styled headline failed to match the body of your article. You gave one instance from three years ago where ZH was incorrect, but I didnt find any specific trade recommendations in your piece. Maybe this is a two part story?
i am a fan of ZH but gotta agree with you on the c...
i am a fan of ZH but gotta agree with you on the comment section. And that is what really turns people out. I started when they ZH open and comments are getting degradading more and more.
Its becoming extremist playground.
Its becoming extremist playground.
No, even as poorly expressed as his post was, he k...
No, even as poorly expressed as his post was, he kicked your ass.
Yep. They all start as contrarian rebels, don'...
Yep. They all start as contrarian rebels, don't they?
So I'm a shill for the finance industry? Sound...
So I'm a shill for the finance industry? Sounds like a reasonable guess, I suppose. But man, if so, I should be getting paid a lot more! ;)
Well, I do like contrarianism! But you know, I'...
Well, I do like contrarianism! But you know, I've been reading some of these sites for years, and it seems like the more popular they get, the less contrarian they get. I remember when Motley Fool actually introduced itself with a big declaration that financial news was noise, that people should buy index funds, etc. Now it's a stock tip site.
And I'll be honest - I've intermittently read Zero Hedge for years, and I used to like it, especially when it was mostly about the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and problems within the finance industry. But since then it's pretty much become a goldbug/"Austrian"/"hyperinflation is coming"/"Obama sucks"/"stimulus sucks" kind of thing, and it looks to me like it's just becoming a tip site for Ron Paul types...
And I'll be honest - I've intermittently read Zero Hedge for years, and I used to like it, especially when it was mostly about the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and problems within the finance industry. But since then it's pretty much become a goldbug/"Austrian"/"hyperinflation is coming"/"Obama sucks"/"stimulus sucks" kind of thing, and it looks to me like it's just becoming a tip site for Ron Paul types...
Right...you got your 15min of fame. Get over it......
Right...you got your 15min of fame. Get over it...
Here comes the predicted flood of testosterone-fue...
Here comes the predicted flood of testosterone-fueled mouth-frothing rants...
This Noah Smith guy is a complete "ASS HAT&qu...
This Noah Smith guy is a complete "ASS HAT". This is his: Update: I showed this post to a few friends in the finance industry, and while all of them agreed, one came up with by far the best one-line response: "Retail investor is retail."
#1. The $SPX is down over the last 12 years. How many Wall St. firms called the 07/08 crash?
#2. The problems of 07/08 centered on the entire Wall St. community with their MBA/PHD "ASS HATS" like NS betting the housing market never goes down by more than 5%!
In my 18 years in financial services, I've never seen a better site for financial information of what's really happening that the MS financial media would never cover. There have been numerous times this year when ZH has done articles on news the financial media and Wall St. have not covered until it goes up on ZH.
#1. The $SPX is down over the last 12 years. How many Wall St. firms called the 07/08 crash?
#2. The problems of 07/08 centered on the entire Wall St. community with their MBA/PHD "ASS HATS" like NS betting the housing market never goes down by more than 5%!
In my 18 years in financial services, I've never seen a better site for financial information of what's really happening that the MS financial media would never cover. There have been numerous times this year when ZH has done articles on news the financial media and Wall St. have not covered until it goes up on ZH.
I read Zero Hedge to get the stories that the MSM ...
I read Zero Hedge to get the stories that the MSM does not cover. I've never traded on anything written on the site and reading it does not send me into a testosterone fueled fit. I've never seen the movie "Fight Club". Go figure. Zero Hedge provides a counterweight to the cheerleaders you will find on CNBC. It's fun to read and much more honest and varied than the crap they spoon feed you on MSM sites. Long live Zero Hedge and thank you Noah for your opinion.
Zero Hedge has called for deflation first followed...
Zero Hedge has called for deflation first followed by hyperinflation, which is exactly how it is going to happen. What confuses people is that gold and silver (ZH's recommended investment) performs very well during deflationary periods (1930's). See the following:
http://www.ftense.com/2012/05/why-precious-metals-could-surge-during.html
http://www.ftense.com/2012/05/why-precious-metals-could-surge-during.html
Not even wrong, bonehead. What happened? Did your...
Not even wrong, bonehead. What happened? Did your PhD adviser kick you in the nuts this morning?
"Compared with all internet users, the site&#...
"Compared with all internet users, the site's users are disproportionately Caucasian, and they are disproportionately childless men earning over $60,000 who browse from home and have postgraduate educations"
Alexa
Alexa
Let's start with the obvious. ZeroHedge.com is...
Let's start with the obvious. ZeroHedge.com is ranked 1,833 globally by Alexa.com (the world's foremost website statistics source). noahpinionblog.blogspot.co.uk is ranked 2,004,514. So... I'd say Tyler's website is generating some content that keeps customers coming back, a sure sign the analysis, opinion and news has significant value.
And to quote HuffingtonPost recently, "Durden's work is cited everywhere from Tom Keene's radio show on Bloomberg to anarchist meetings taking place in parking garages and vacant lots across America. Whenever I meet people and tell them I'm a blogger, the very first question they ask (in whispered tones) is whether or not I know Tyler."
ZeroHedge.com is the foremost site for instant news and real analysis of the Euro Crisis.
Noah who?
And to quote HuffingtonPost recently, "Durden's work is cited everywhere from Tom Keene's radio show on Bloomberg to anarchist meetings taking place in parking garages and vacant lots across America. Whenever I meet people and tell them I'm a blogger, the very first question they ask (in whispered tones) is whether or not I know Tyler."
ZeroHedge.com is the foremost site for instant news and real analysis of the Euro Crisis.
Noah who?
"Compared with all internet users, the site&#...
"Compared with all internet users, the site's users are disproportionately Caucasian, and they are disproportionately childless men earning over $60,000 who browse from home and have postgraduate educations"
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/zerohedge.com
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/zerohedge.com
Well done Noah. Not only did you provoke Aziz into...
Well done Noah. Not only did you provoke Aziz into writing a full post, but you managed to provoke a full response from Tyler Durden:
"Hold on, hold on, hold on....
You mean that work which we thought was nothing short of fantastic pastiche, and which we got a hearty chuckle out of, was not a self-satirical, sarcastic grotesque?
You mean to say that a 6th year Econ Ph.D. student can come up with numerous extended paragraphs worth of "conclusions" based on a google search as the only primary source data?
You mean that instead of doing some actual due diligence like clicking on our very prominent conflicts/full disclosure policy (featured on the front page for about 3 years now), the author decided to take a stab at coming up with a (far less witty) one?
You mean that he was not writing about StockTwits, which actually pumps trading recommendations every second based on whichever way the wind blows, but was in fact writing about Zero Hedge, whose actual "recommendation" on the stock market since the summer of 2009 has been a simple one: "stay out" as anyone who has actually read it would know...
... You can not be serious man.
Oh wait... This is what the author himself says:
It really does not have to do with the specific information content of Zero Hedge (although a casual glance tells me that most of it is probably crap).
As yes: nothing like confirming all our fears about the frail state of the Keynesian dogma indoctrinated into young, impressionable minds, where one derives conclusions based on a "casual glance" about what one is actually writing about.
Carry on then (and don't forget to name drop #Zerohedge now and then: think of all the clicks to your website you are not getting)"
"Hold on, hold on, hold on....
You mean that work which we thought was nothing short of fantastic pastiche, and which we got a hearty chuckle out of, was not a self-satirical, sarcastic grotesque?
You mean to say that a 6th year Econ Ph.D. student can come up with numerous extended paragraphs worth of "conclusions" based on a google search as the only primary source data?
You mean that instead of doing some actual due diligence like clicking on our very prominent conflicts/full disclosure policy (featured on the front page for about 3 years now), the author decided to take a stab at coming up with a (far less witty) one?
You mean that he was not writing about StockTwits, which actually pumps trading recommendations every second based on whichever way the wind blows, but was in fact writing about Zero Hedge, whose actual "recommendation" on the stock market since the summer of 2009 has been a simple one: "stay out" as anyone who has actually read it would know...
... You can not be serious man.
Oh wait... This is what the author himself says:
It really does not have to do with the specific information content of Zero Hedge (although a casual glance tells me that most of it is probably crap).
As yes: nothing like confirming all our fears about the frail state of the Keynesian dogma indoctrinated into young, impressionable minds, where one derives conclusions based on a "casual glance" about what one is actually writing about.
Carry on then (and don't forget to name drop #Zerohedge now and then: think of all the clicks to your website you are not getting)"
Surprised you pick on the site offering contrary a...
Surprised you pick on the site offering contrary analysis rather than the much larger msm. There is an edge that can come from contrarianism, and I, as a partner at a hedge fund, appreciates ZH for actually questioning rather than repeating the bs that policy makers and mainstream financial news puts out. For example, you never heard CNBC pundits telling the truth about the housing bubble and financial crisis, but if you read ZH, you would have had plenty of light shone to avoid or short those...
you are the definitive idiot. only such a moron wo...
you are the definitive idiot. only such a moron would assert ZH advocates trading positions, or give any sort of investment advice. it is obvious you have virtually no experience reading zero hedge. you clearly have some sort of axe to grind, and from the gist of what you say, and the clear fact you are totally wrong in your assertions, i'd say you are a shill for the wall street sell side. heaven forbid there would be a site the offers insight into the rigged game of wall street. you, noah, are a dope.
Google Trends suggests that ZH readers are more th...
Google Trends suggests that ZH readers are more than testosterone-addicted traders. Readership has been in an uptrend since its inception and many of the top cities that Google search "zerohedge" are financial and political capitals throughout the world. Therefore its highly doubtful that these people are "fat suckers". More likely they are highly educated people inside AND outside the financial industry trying to get a more complete picture of what is happening in the world of finance. http://www.google.com/trends/?q=zerohedge
The people I follow on Twitter generally get one f...
The people I follow on Twitter generally get one free bad post before I unfollow. Noah this is yours! U bash for reasons way beyond "buying on the news". U bash because ur ideas do not agree with ZH, nice try though....
The Grocery Saver's Challenge
So today is 'grocery shopping day.' And not a moment too soon either, as the cupboards are bare. I've clipped coupons before, and even attempted to organize them, and tried to take them to the store. Inevitably, however, the kids would end up getting me so aggravated during our shopping trips that I would forget to use the coupons, and often wound up buying just enough food for a few days, (
Sabtu, 16 Juni 2012
Welfare Strategic Reform
The welfare system is broken. Whether or not it can be fixed remains to be seen, but before we can start to consider how to fix it, we have to understand it's role, identify what's not working and then start to discuss solutions based on what actually is wrong...
Smoke And Mirrors
It's such a mess because it's misunderstood and misapplied, for the sake of 'convenience.' For most people,
Smoke And Mirrors
It's such a mess because it's misunderstood and misapplied, for the sake of 'convenience.' For most people,
This just makes my blood boil. I am disgusted by the so-called 'educated' people that make up the 'middle class' America demographic, who are at best pseudo-intellecutals with no real comprehension of how the real world really works, and at worst, a bunch of sanctimonious, condescending twits who can't see their own nose in front of their face. In case you're wondering what this little rant is
Minggu, 26 Februari 2012
Kids And Contracts
This morning I got an email from E-how, about an article on "How To Make A Contract With Your Teen On School." My kids are still little, one of them not even in school yet, but I thought the article might give me some insight on dealing with issues that currently plague my family.My oldest only slightly remembers his bio father. My husband is 'Dad' and he's raised them as his own. However, my
Kamis, 16 Februari 2012
Arsenic In Organic Baby Food!?
Well if the title wasn't enough to get you all riled up today... hold on. Source: http://health.msn.com/kids-health/articlepage.aspx?cp-documentid=100286767THURSDAY, Feb. 16 (HealthDay News) -- A sweetener used in many organic foods may be a hidden source of arsenic, new research suggests.Researchers at Dartmouth College also note that the sweetener, organic brown rice syrup, is found in some
Sabtu, 04 Februari 2012
Volunteer Grandparents - Adopt A Grandchild
Voluneteer Grandparents and the Adopt A Grandchild program may just save my life, or at least, my sanity. I've lamented on the breakdown of the family values system in the US for years, and for me, not having parents who understand the meaning of 'family,' has left my children without the benefits of having grandparents. I have often wondered if I could put an ad on Craigslist for some kind of '
Jumat, 27 Januari 2012
Jumat, 20 Januari 2012
Scott R Grande Veterans Financial Post
Scott R. Grande is a Financial Services Agent for Veterans Financial, Inc., as well as the Founder of an evangelical organization called Christ Saves Ministries.
Since 2007 Scott Grande has been helping hundreds of veterans and their spouses qualify and apply for the Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) Aid & Attendance Pension benefit as a Representative ofVeterans Financial, Inc.
Many veteran families receive anywhere from $1,019-$2,019/month to help pay for their out of pocket long term care expenses such as assisted living, skilled nursing, adult day and home care. Scott is able to help them understand and meet the VA’s qualifications. For more information, please visit VeteransFinancial.com.
As an Evangelist, Scott works in spreading the good news of Jesus Christ. He has been to Pakistan, India, Nigeria, Ghana, and Liberia to share the gospel with unbelievers as well as teach and train indigenous pastors and evangelists.
The main belief of his ministry is “Believe in the Lord Jesus and you will be saved.”, as stated in the scriptures. For more information one can visit christsavesministries.org.
Scott R. Grande graduated from the University of Rhode Island in 1992 with a bachelor’s degree in Speech Communications, is a native of Cranston, RI, Scott now resides in Seekonk, Massachusetts.
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