Zerohedge is obviously maintained by loonies who buy perpetual motion machine blueprints off the internet and vote for Ron Paul. However, they do churn out data-points secondhand at a fantastic rate. As long as you don't read their scaremonge... I mean: analysis, they're pretty useful.
However, Noah's idea of efficient markets and all that is pretty nutty too -- albeit of a slightly different flavor. I'm guessing that Noah, like most economists, doesn't have much actual interest in financial markets. What Noah doesn't seem to understand is that the idea of market equilibrium is a fantasy cooked up by economists and is largely meaningless when it comes to the real world.
The real world, as Keynes (an investor...) well knew, is characterised by fundamental uncertainty. For example, last week you could have made a pretty penny by shorting the euro at the start of the week. Now, that depended basically on whether the ECB was going to cut interest rates. So, the whole idea was to look at data and try to figure out whether they would or not. At the end of the day -- since you cannot know the future (as Noah implicitly thinks) -- you're placing a bet. However, as long as you know what you're doing it won't be a completely senseless bet.
So, I'd dare to say that Noah is actually the flip-side of Zerohedge. Whereas Zerohedge believe that the economy and the financial markets are perpetually and hopelessly out of balance and that the whole thing will soon collapse leaving only those holding gold bars with wealth, Noah and the neoclassicals believe that the markets are moving from one equilibrium to another through some 'invisible hand' process that when looked at from the outside appears to be something like an idea of God. Who would I trust for investment advice? Neither.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar